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Odds are...McCain dies before his term ends

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  • Odds are...McCain dies before his term ends

    This strikes me as a funny thing to write about, but here it is:

    http://www.pr-inside.com/sarah-palin...ke-r781355.htm

    008-08-31 20:24:29 - The chances that Vice President Sarah Palin would have to take over from President John McCain if they were elected could be as high as 40%, since McCain has about a 20% chance of dying in office, and a much higher risk of becoming disabled from a variety of conditions, including a stroke or [COLOR=#0000CC ! important][COLOR=#0000CC ! important]Alzheimer's[/COLOR][/COLOR], both diseases which can impair judgment and where the risks increase very rapidly with age, notes Professor John Banzhaf of George Washington [COLOR=#0000CC ! important][COLOR=#0000CC ! important]University[/COLOR][/COLOR].

    Male former smokers who are 75 years of age have a greater than 50% chance of dying during their next ten years, whereas those who are currently 70 have a 10-year risk of death over 35%.

    McCain, who is 72, has a statistical risk of death somewhere between these two figures, which Banzhaf estimates could be as high as a
    20% chance of dying during the next 5 years.

    These figures do not include his increased risk of death from his multiple bouts of deadly melanoma skin cancer, a condition which could reoccur, and which recent research shows also increases the risks of developing other [COLOR=#0000CC ! important][COLOR=#0000CC ! important]types [COLOR=#0000CC ! important]of [/COLOR][COLOR=#0000CC ! important]cancer[/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR].

    Naturally, the odds that he will suffer from some disabling condition while in office are much higher, with [COLOR=#0000CC ! important][COLOR=#0000CC ! important]studies[/COLOR][/COLOR] suggesting that the disability rate of persons 70-74 is almost 40%, and among those 75-79, the rate approaches 50%.

    While a president's access to excellent around-the-clock medical care and monitoring might tend to reduce these odds, the enormous stresses of the presidency - far greater than those experienced by most men over the age of 70 - could also increase the odds.

    One potentially disabling disease McCain could face is Alzheimer's, where advancing age is the major risk factor, and the odds of coming down with the disease double every five years after the age of 65.

    Unfortunately, the minor memory impairments and other mental problems often present during the early stages of Alzheimer's might be barely noticeable and of little consequence in a typical 72-year-old man enjoying [COLOR=#0000CC ! important][COLOR=#0000CC ! important]retirement[/COLOR][/COLOR] or working on a part- or even full-time basis, but they could be catastrophic in a president who must make crucial decisions regarding war, peace, and economics, negotiate with other world leaders, etc.

    Another major risk for McCain is a stroke, the third leading cause of death in the U.S., and a major cause of serious long-term disability. The chances of someone having a stroke increase very rapidly with age, with two-thirds of all strokes happening to people over 65.

    Stroke risk doubles with each decade past age 55, and recent studies show that the risk is substantially higher for former heavy smokers, even if they quit many years ago as McCain reportedly did. In addition to causing physical disability which could affect McCain's ability to maintain a busy schedule, strokes can impair mental functioning, as well as the ability to communicate.

    The potential health risks facing Barack Obama, age 47, are very different. Male former smokers who are 45 years of age have less than a 5% chance of dying within the next ten year.

    Even if he is classified as a current smoker -- although he reportedly has quit with, at most, an occasional relapse -- his 10-year death risk is still under 10%. Banzhaf estimates his chances of dying while in office are only about 4%.

    The 25th Amendment provides for the vice president to assume the duties of the president if he has a disability which makes him "unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office." It further provides that, if the president does not himself recognize that a physical or mental disability renders him unable, that decision may be made by the Vice President and a majority of the principal officers of the executive departments.

    This might occur, for example, if a president came down with Alzheimer's but refused -- perhaps because of the disease and/or his reluctance to accept the diagnosis -- to agree to relinquish his powers.

    John Banzhaf is a professor at George Washington University known in part for his statistical-type analyses ("The Banzhaf Index") as well as his very successful work against smoking.

    He stresses that he does not express or even imply any opinions or preferences regarding the four major-party candidates for high office, and that this analysis is designed simply to highlight some statistical factors regarding the candidates.

    PROFESSOR JOHN F. BANZHAF III
    Professor of Public Interest Law
    George Washington University [COLOR=#0000CC ! important][COLOR=#0000CC ! important]Law [COLOR=#0000CC ! important]School[/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR]
    FAMRI Dr. William Cahan Distinguished Professor
    FELLOW, World Technology Network
    2013 H Street, NW, Washington, DC 20006, USA
    (202) 659-4312 // (703) 527-8418
    banzhaf.net

    On my mind: How can I shut up the singing English graduate student? How many more lossess will KU's basketball team have than its football team? How will the Rams front office screw up this year?


    Official lounge sponsor of Will Witherspoon, Russell Robinson, and all other things Jayhawk at the lounge (which ain't much).

  • #2
    He won't die before his first term is over because he won't be elected.

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    • #3
      Airshark says the odds are even up.

      Moon

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      • #4
        Don't Presidents receive a higher degree of medical care than the general population? No waiting rooms! Housecalls!
        Former 2017 OFFICIAL SPONSOR of Braves' Fill-In Matt Adams,
        Jesus is . . .


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        • #5
          Oh pfft.. everyone knows they are going to clone McCain if he wins the presidency.

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          • #6
            Even if McCain dies on January 30, 2009, we can rest assured that the experienced Sarah Palin will be ready to step in and run the country. She has more executive experience than Obama after all.

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            • #7
              Originally posted by ksbluesfan View Post
              Even if McCain dies on January 30, 2009, we can rest assured that the experienced Sarah Palin will be ready to step in and run the country. She has more executive experience than Obama after all.
              If she does take over, libraries all across the nation must be cleared of all books containing foul and inappropriate language.
              “I’ve always stated, ‘I’m a Missouri Tiger,’” Anderson said March 13 after Arkansas fired John Pelphrey, adding, “I’m excited about what’s taking place here.”

              Asked then if he would talk to his players about the situation, he said, “They know me, and that’s where the trust comes in.

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              • #8

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                • #9
                  Hottest president, perhaps, but not hottest chief executive. Yulia Tymoshenko is smokin' hot.


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                  • #10
                    Originally posted by ksbluesfan View Post
                    Hottest president, perhaps, but not hottest chief executive. Yulia Tymoshenko is smokin' hot.

                    Goo.
                    On my mind: How can I shut up the singing English graduate student? How many more lossess will KU's basketball team have than its football team? How will the Rams front office screw up this year?


                    Official lounge sponsor of Will Witherspoon, Russell Robinson, and all other things Jayhawk at the lounge (which ain't much).

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Official Lounge Sponsor of Candy.


                      "When you say 'radical right' today, I think of these moneymaking ventures by fellows like Pat Robertson and others who are trying to take the Republican Party and make a religious organization out of it. If that ever happens, kiss politics goodbye."
                      -Barry Goldwater

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                      • #12
                        Originally posted by hansolo View Post

                        That'd be funnier if McCain's response to Obama was "LaRussa."

                        Another major risk for McCain is a stroke, the third leading cause of death in the U.S., and a major cause of serious long-term disability. The chances of someone having a stroke increase very rapidly with age, with two-thirds of all strokes happening to people over 65.
                        The GOP would use the script of "Dave" and bring in a McCain lookalike.

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                        • #13
                          Originally posted by El Birdo 1 View Post
                          As I was saying...

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                          • #14
                            I expect major laughter and kidding for saying this, but I always thought the late Benazir Bhutto was kind of a "hottie". I would have loved to seen her when she was in her late teens and twenties.
                            Make America Great For Once.

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                            • #15
                              Originally posted by Bleacher Creature View Post
                              I expect major laughter and kidding for saying this, but I always thought the late Benazir Bhutto was kind of a "hottie". I would have loved to seen her when she was in her late teens and twenties.

                              ++

                              Now she's a coldie....

                              Too soon?

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