The DeWallet must be opened in '09

[4thand1]

http://www.stltoday.com/stltoday/sports/columnists.nsf/berniemiklasz/story/EE446139F89FCE43862574B700127AF8?OpenDocument

There's simply no way to finesse the truth: It was a devastating weekend for the Cardinals.

After rallying late on Wednesday to hang a loss on the Brewers, the Cardinals were only 3 1/2 games out in the wild-card race as they went into Houston. The sudden victory settled the nerves and regenerated the mood in the St. Louis clubhouse.

But after being swept by the Astros, the math is grim, and the optimism has dimmed. While the Cardinals were flopping in Houston, the Brewers went to Pittsburgh to kick the Pirates around for three consecutive wins.

With only 25 games remaining, the Cardinals trail the Brewers by 6 1/2 games — seven in the loss column. The Cardinals are also a game behind Philadelphia in the wild-card standings.


Yes, I believe it's over.

The Cardinals (74-63) have played entertaining and enthusiastic baseball, exceeding the late-winter forecasts for 2008. It's been a largely unexpected season for a transitioning team, a rebuilding team. But the Cardinals proudly tossed those 90-loss predictions aside.

It's been a heck of a ride, but this team is sputtering now. Reality has chased them down. I don't know whether it was fatigue or the seepage of disappointment, but the Cardinals seemed awfully sluggish in Houston.

They looked wiped out.

And they got rubbed out.

How do they recover from this lost weekend? The trends are ominous. MORE BERNIE
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The Cardinals are 52-51 since May 6, and 34-36 since June 12. Their longest winning streak (twice) is five games. They have two four-game winning streaks. They've won six out of seven games in two separate installments.

And it's going to take a lot more than that to bump off the Brewers, and that's not all. To snatch the wild card, the Cardinals would also have to finish ahead of the runner-up in the NL East, be it the Phillies or the Mets.

The Brewers are 60-32 since May 18. Since trade acquisition CC Sabathia made his first start for Milwaukee on July 7, Brewers starting pitchers are 23-13 with a 3.18 ERA. Sabathia transformed a solid rotation into an outstanding rotation, and with such a rugged foundation the Brewers will probably avoid damaging losing streaks.

Sure, I wonder about the Brewers' ability to handle pressure, and that's something they'll have to prove during the final month. But when you can crank out as many quality starts as the Brewers have, meltdowns aren't as likely. The Cardinals had to keep close to find out about the Brewers' temperament, and the disaster in Houston was a huge blow.

On the evening of July 20, the Cardinals had just completed a four-game sweep over San Diego to go 14 games over .500, at 57-43. They were only two games behind the first-place Cubs and led the Brewers by a game in the wild card.

And then the season turned, dramatically, when the Brewers came into Busch on July 21 and proceeded to win four in a row. The Cardinals have been chasing them ever since.

There could be a longer-view benefit to all of this.

This blast of reality should convince Cardinals Chairman Bill DeWitt and general manager John Mozeliak of the need to have an aggressive, proactive offseason.

The bosses can no longer sit back, passively, in a false sense of comfort. There's a huge gap between the Cubs and the Cardinals, and a growing breach between the Brewers and Cardinals. And more piddling won't close it.

The fans should demand a renewed commitment to winning from ownership. I'm all in favor of developing players, and the Cardinals have made positive gains in this crucial area.

That said, the Cardinals do not have any major-league ready prospects to fill the most glaring needs for 2009: a legit middle-infield bat, a proven starting pitcher and a quality lefty reliever.

To address those voids DeWitt is going to have to spend some money, and Mozeliak will have to show some creativity and daring if he seeks to make trades. With so many contracts coming off the books, the payroll space will be there, so please dump the excuses.

I don't think the customers will put up with another transition-rebuilding season when it isn't justified. The Cardinals can win in 2009, but only if the bosses match manager Tony La Russa's intense desire to win.

The free passes for ownership and management have expired.

[Tazlaz]

I find it funny Bernie lumps Mozeliak in this when just yesterday afternoon he had this to say regarding Mozeliak's lack of movement at the [July 31] trade deadline:

There weren't any reasonable trades the Cardinals could have made that would have made a difference.

I never flip flopped on this - I pushed for reasonable trades and none of any magnitude ever materialized.

I really can't help those who have the short attention spans and are incapable of absorbing an entire column rather than a line or two.

[triggercut1]

Ah, the annual "the team isn't spending money" column from Bernie, who should really know better.

Who are these mystical, mythical free agents out there next year? CC Sabathia? Does anyone here *really* think the Cardinals will outbid the Yankees, Red Sox, Angels, Dodgers, Cubs, or White Sox for him? Rafael Furcal? You wanna spend $10m/year on a guy who had season-ending back surgery in May? Sheets? Anyone with a long memory remember the last time this team acquired an alleged "front of the rotation" starter who had statistically fallen apart in the second half of the season? How many healthy seasons has Sheets had? You willing to commit $15m/5 years for that?

I still the best strategy for the Cardinals to follow is to continue to rebuild their farm system, and then sign the products of that to long-term deals and save the mega-contracts for fellows like Pujols, Ankiel, and Yadi.

[F the Cubs]

Ah, the annual "the team isn't spending money" column from Bernie, who should really know better.

Who are these mystical, mythical free agents out there next year? CC Sabathia? Does anyone here *really* think the Cardinals will outbid the Yankees, Red Sox, Angels, Dodgers, Cubs, or White Sox for him? Rafael Furcal? You wanna spend $10m/year on a guy who had season-ending back surgery in May? Sheets? Anyone with a long memory remember the last time this team acquired an alleged "front of the rotation" starter who had statistically fallen apart in the second half of the season? How many healthy seasons has Sheets had? You willing to commit $15m/5 years for that?

I still the best strategy for the Cardinals to follow is to continue to rebuild their farm system, and then sign the products of that to long-term deals and save the mega-contracts for fellows like Pujols, Ankiel, and Yadi.

++ Yep yep. Well said, Trigger.

[Jack Daniels]

Keep dreamin', Bern, DeWitt Will spend just as much as necessary, if not a bit less.

[Bleacher Creature]

Keep dreamin', Bern, DeWitt Will spend just as much as necessary, if not a bit less.

+++

[marco]

Ah, the annual "the team isn't spending money" column from Bernie, who should really know better.

Who are these mystical, mythical free agents out there next year? CC Sabathia? Does anyone here *really* think the Cardinals will outbid the Yankees, Red Sox, Angels, Dodgers, Cubs, or White Sox for him? Rafael Furcal? You wanna spend $10m/year on a guy who had season-ending back surgery in May? Sheets? Anyone with a long memory remember the last time this team acquired an alleged "front of the rotation" starter who had statistically fallen apart in the second half of the season? How many healthy seasons has Sheets had? You willing to commit $15m/5 years for that?

I still the best strategy for the Cardinals to follow is to continue to rebuild their farm system, and then sign the products of that to long-term deals and save the mega-contracts for fellows like Pujols, Ankiel, and Yadi.

Right on. At least Mulder and (hopefully) Izzy will be coming off the books.

[Bleacher Creature]

I'll say it again, it seems that some of you guys are more concerned about how the ballclub spends money than our government.

[marco]

I'll say it again, it seems that some of you guys are more concerned about how the ballclub spends money than our government.

Imagine that... in a place called, "Sports Lounge"

[Bleacher Creature]

Imagine that... in a place called, "Sports Lounge"

Where politics/governement is 75% of the talk.

[triggercut1]

There are some interesting F/A's in the relief pitcher ranks, but I'd also point out that that area has seen some pretty high demand in recent years, and the inflation for those contracts has been staggering.

[hansolo]

+++

Which FA would you have pursued and how much?

[triggercut1]

Keep dreamin', Bern, DeWitt Will spend just as much as necessary, if not a bit less.

You and Kev aren't thinking it through at all.

If the New York Yankees take a bath on a contract like the one they gave Carl Pavano, they shrug, write it off, and sign someone else to a ludicrous contract. The untold story of the Cubs getting Rich Harden was the fact that if Harden's arm fell off...they don't care. The money is a drop in the bucket for them.

For a team without the deep financial safety net of the big-market clubs, the high-ticket free agents are a lot of risk with a huge downside potential. One bad deal can crush your team for years. Look at the Royals. They're paying huge money to Gil Meche, Grudz, and Jose Guillen (shudder), and they're 22 games under .500. Yes, I know Meche has been solid for them...but at what cost? How's the Royals minor league coaching and facilities? Their scouting (they still keep sending Ross Gload out there, so they suck)? If guys like Mike Aviles and Brian Bannister and Luke Hochevar turn out to be the real deal, will they be able to do for them what the Rays did for Evan Longoria and lock them up long-term?

[007]

You guys are just wasting time trying to explain it...

[Bleacher Creature]

You guys are just wasting time trying to explain it...

I understand what your side is trying to say, however I'm not buying it.