Fact and Fiction about the pitching staff -- what the numbers show

[joe_w]

In the discussion of the bullpen failures, one myth that has frequently been floated is that the bullpen's struggles are a reflection of the rotation's struggles. As the starting pitching has become less consistent, it's thrown a larger burden upon the bullpen.

Looking at the numbers, though, I don't think that bears out.

On June 7 Wainwright sprained his pitching finger. He has not pitched since. Not quite one week later (June 13) Todd Wellemeyer went down with his injury. He has since come back, but has never regained his effectiveness.

Up to this point, the Cardinal rotation had been one of the wonders of baseball. Since then, it's been a sea of inconsistency.

So using these two injuries to define the "before" and "after" of the rotation, this is what you get.

Here is what the pitching staff looked like on the morning of June 7:

Starters:

Name	g	gs	qs	ip	h	r	er	hr	bb	so	w	l	lw	sv	op	hld	era	avg	ob	slg
Thompson	2	2	1	10 2/3	12	3	3	0	4	11	1	0	0	0	0	0	2.53	.293	.370	.415
Wellemeyer	13	13	8	80	65	28	26	8	25	62	7	1	1	0	0	0	2.93	.221	.284	.357
Wainwright	12	12	8	86 2/3	73	33	30	9	19	58	5	3	4	0	0	0	3.12	.227	.271	.386
Lohse	13	13	6	74 1/3	77	33	32	3	17	34	6	2	2	0	0	0	3.87	.270	.311	.393
Pineiro	8	8	4	44	47	23	22	5	13	23	2	3	2	0	0	0	4.50	.273	.324	.436
Looper	13	13	4	74	92	44	40	7	21	35	7	5	1	0	0	0	4.86	.308	.360	.455
Parisi	2	2	0	6 2/3	18	16	13	0	7	3	0	1	0	0	0	0	17.55	.500	.568	.667
	63	63	31	376 1/3	384	180	166	32	106	226	28	15	10	0	0	0	3.97	.265	.317	.410

lw, by the way, means lost wins.

Middle relievers:

Name	g	gs	qs	ip	h	r	er	hr	bb	so	w	l	lw	sv	op	hld	era	avg	ob	slg
Worrell	2	0	0	3	3	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	.333	.500	.444
Franklin	21	0	0	21 1/3	14	5	3	0	10	11	2	1	1	0	2	12	1.27	.184	.284	.289
McClellan	29	0	0	31 1/3	27	7	7	1	8	24	0	1	0	1	2	15	2.01	.233	.297	.293
Perez	10	0	0	8 2/3	4	2	2	0	4	6	1	0	0	0	0	2	2.08	.138	.242	.172
Parisi	8	0	0	15 2/3	16	5	5	1	5	10	0	1	1	0	0	0	2.87	.258	.313	.403
Springer	20	0	0	15 1/3	15	5	5	1	9	12	1	0	0	0	0	3	2.93	.254	.353	.339
Villone	25	0	0	24 1/3	21	11	10	1	12	23	1	1	0	0	1	5	3.70	.239	.333	.295
Flores	24	0	0	16 1/3	16	8	7	1	10	13	1	0	1	0	2	10	3.86	.254	.355	.349
Boggs	1	0	0	2	3	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	4.50	.429	.429	.857
Reyes	7	0	0	12	13	6	6	1	3	8	1	1	0	0	0	1	4.50	.277	.320	.426
Thompson	4	0	0	7	7	6	6	1	6	2	0	1	0	0	0	0	7.71	.292	.433	.500
Jimenez	4	0	0	6 1/3	9	6	6	4	2	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	8.53	.333	.379	.852
Isringhausen	5	0	0	3 2/3	4	5	4	1	4	2	0	2	0	0	1	0	9.82	.250	.400	.438
	160	0	0	167	152	67	62	13	76	115	7	8	3	1	8	48	3.34	.244	.330	.363

And the closers:

Name	g	gs	qs	ip	h	r	er	hr	bb	so	w	l	lw	sv	op	hld	era	avg	ob	slg
Flores	1	0	0	1/3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0.00	.000	.000	.000
Franklin	8	0	0	6	10	5	5	2	2	6	0	1	0	7	8	0	7.50	.357	.400	.750
Isringhausen	16	0	0	14 1/3	18	12	12	2	6	10	1	3	0	11	16	0	7.53	.305	.382	.542
Reyes	2	0	0	1 2/3	3	2	2	1	0	2	0	0	0	1	1	1	10.80	.375	.375	1.000
	27	0	0	22 1/3	31	19	19	5	8	18	1	4	0	20	26	1	7.66	.323	.383	.635

Important things to note: 1 - the closers were already imploding. Izzy had already cracked up and passed the mantle on to Franklin. No one was doing much with the job. 2 -- Note the innings distribution. Starters were pitching 5.97 innings per start. Middle relief 2.65 and the closers 0.35.

Here is what has happened since Wellemeyer's injury:

Starters:

Name	g	gs	qs	ip	h	r	er	hr	bb	so	w	l	lw	sv	op	hld	era	avg	ob	slg
Mulder	1	1	0	1/3	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	.000	.667	.000
Lohse	9	9	7	59	63	24	22	8	13	35	5	1	0	0	0	0	3.36	.270	.309	.425
Thompson	1	1	0	5	5	2	2	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	3.60	.263	.263	.421
Looper	7	7	2	37 1/3	46	21	20	10	9	18	1	3	1	0	0	0	4.82	.301	.352	.562
Pineiro	8	8	4	48 2/3	70	28	28	5	11	20	1	1	2	0	0	0	5.18	.340	.379	.534
Garcia	1	1	0	5	5	3	3	2	1	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	5.40	.263	.300	.579
Wellemeyer	6	6	0	32 2/3	39	20	20	3	11	14	1	2	2	0	0	0	5.51	.300	.354	.446
Boggs	5	5	1	26	33	25	24	3	18	13	2	2	0	0	0	0	8.31	.308	.414	.505
	38	38	14	214	261	123	119	31	65	106	10	10	5	0	0	0	5.00	.301	.354	.491

Middle relief:

Name	g	gs	qs	ip	h	r	er	hr	bb	so	w	l	lw	sv	op	hld	era	avg	ob	slg
Garcia	1	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	.143	.250	.143
Reyes	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	.000	.000	.000
Springer	20	0	0	14 1/3	11	2	1	1	3	11	1	0	0	0	1	3	0.63	.208	.250	.283
Jimenez	4	0	0	7 2/3	4	1	1	0	8	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1.17	.154	.361	.154
McClellan	19	0	0	22 1/3	19	7	7	4	7	20	2	4	3	0	2	7	2.82	.241	.302	.430
Isringhausen	15	0	0	18 2/3	15	6	6	2	8	16	0	0	2	0	1	0	2.89	.217	.316	.348
Thompson	6	0	0	15 2/3	14	6	6	2	3	10	1	0	0	0	0	0	3.45	.241	.274	.397
Villone	15	0	0	10	7	4	4	2	6	13	0	1	0	0	0	4	3.60	.200	.317	.429
Perez	9	0	0	12	13	8	8	2	9	13	1	0	1	0	1	1	6.00	.295	.411	.591
Flores	8	0	0	4	11	3	3	0	5	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	6.75	.478	.571	.609
Franklin	8	0	0	7	13	7	6	3	3	3	1	1	0	0	0	0	7.71	.394	.459	.727
Boggs	1	0	0	1	2	1	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	9.00	.400	.500	.600
Mulder	2	0	0	1 1/3	4	2	2	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	13.50	.571	.556	.571
Parisi	2	0	0	2/3	3	3	3	1	3	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	40.50	.750	.857	1.500
	111	0	0	118	117	50	48	17	57	94	7	8	6	0	6	15	3.67	.262	.350	.433

and closers:

Name	g	gs	qs	ip	h	r	er	hr	bb	so	w	l	lw	sv	op	hld	era	avg	ob	slg
Thompson	1	0	0	2/3	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	0	1	0	0.00	.333	.500	.667
Franklin	9	0	0	13 1/3	16	6	6	3	3	11	0	1	0	6	9	0	4.05	.308	.345	.577
McClellan	1	0	0	2/3	3	2	2	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	27.00	.600	.600	.600
Perez	1	0	0	1/3	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	27.00	.500	.500	2.000
Isringhausen	1	0	0	1/3	3	2	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	54.00	.750	.750	1.000
	13	0	0	15.3	24	11	11	4	4	11	1	2	1	6	12	1	6.46	.364	.400	.652

The starters have been much worse, but everything else is virtually the same (yes middle relief has sagged slightly, but still very good). The inning distribution is even close. The starters over the last 38 games have averaged 5.63 innings, the middle relief 3.10 and the closers 0.40.

So the numbers suggest that the bullpen hasn't been visibly affected by the downturn in starter effectiveness. The middle relief corps continues to do a praiseworthy job.

The problem is and continues to be the closers.