bob barr wants your vote...

[007]

for President...

[sketch]

I can't believe this got any national coverage along the lines of 'he could take votes from X giving the presidency to Y'. Please, if he gets 1% in one state it will be a shock. Doesn't Ron Paul have his base all tied up already?

[madyaks]

Bob Barr will pull votes, I imagine a lot of the southern christian right will vote for him. (my guess is he wants something from McCain)

[Jeffro]

"My wife, she make this cheese with milk from her tit."

[kjoe]

I am not rejoicing. It will detract from Obama's ability to frame the arguments to be made----a lot more will be said about fewer taxes, immigration, smaller government, less emphasis will be on education, and healthcare and the environment----

and

"I think Bob Barr's candidacy could impact the race, but I don't know at this point which candidate he is likely to help or hurt," Barron said. "If Barr's candidacy is fueled by the same people who supported Ron Paul -- college students, antiwar advocates and hard-core libertarians -- then I think it is unlikely to hurt Sen. McCain in any significant way because these are not the type of voters McCain is reaching out to. I could actually envision a scenario under which Barr's candidacy actually helps McCain by siphoning off some of the enthusiasm among college voters and antiwar advocates for Obama."

If he gets up to 10 or 15 percent in the polls, then it shrinksw to 1 or 2 per cent on election day, the media will do a big whoop ti do over how that 1 percent might cost mcCain this state or that---and ignore the boost from the much larger percentage who decide that they will make their vote count by casting it for McCain.

Most of what you read will be that he is a problem for the republicans like nader was for the democrats. And if it costs him Florida, and Obama manages to win in the electoral college while losing the popular vote they will have the same phony proof of what happened as they had with nader in 2000.

It will never, ever occur to them to examine what Barr's impact on the overall campaign will be.

[ppg shg]

This.

Regarding Congressman Barr's presidential run, I think that he undermines McCain without drawing votes to himself, and that's good enough for Obama.

I think that your "does he get votes" calculus is understandably, but overly, shaped by Nader's impact in 2000.

I think the impact of Barr out there running is that you now have two voices, one ostensibly from the Right, criticizing War On Terrorism policies, including Iraq. That's going to make it harder for McCain to draw the usual "the Dems are weak, Republicans are strong" distinction. I think it's going to have an impact on independent voters, even if that impact isn't to draw them to Barr but to make it okay (you know what I mean) for them to vote for Obama.

You're right that Barr has tended to attract quite a bit of media attention to himself - since Safire's departure, he's been the go-to "right-wing civil liberties guy." Which is funny, because he was a huge "War on Drugs" guy (he now views medical marijuana as a states rights issue), and was an author of the Defense of Marriage Act.

"How many Republicans are there out there who just won't accept McCain's Iraq forever position but can't bring themselves to vote for a Democrat? And how many of them could Barr sop up?"

See, I think you're asking basically the right question there, but you're still framing it in terms of "how many votes does Barr get?" Not many, I'd guess. I don't think it matters much.

Then again, I suck at political prognostication.

[kah]

Bob Barr's had a strange little ideological journey in recent years.

[kah]

It's official! Can he equal the Libertarian high water mark of 1% set by Ed Clark in 1980? The world awaits.

[Jeffro]

It's official! Can he equal the Libertarian high water mark of 1% set by Ed Clark in 1980? The world awaits.

No, probably not.

[kah]

No, probably not.

Indeed. Paul might have, but apparently he wants to stay in the GOP.

[Jeffro]

Indeed. Paul might have, but apparently he wants to stay in the GOP.

I didn't realize Libertarians were on the ballot in only 28 states. For whatever reason I had this idea in my head that they were bigger than the Greens.

[kah]

I didn't realize Libertarians were on the ballot in only 28 states. For whatever reason I had this idea in my head that they were bigger than the Greens.

If that's the case that would be a very low total for them, as they are usually on the ballot in all fifty states or pretty close. Probably still time to make it in a lot of states.

[kjoe]

The 1 percent mark is usually the best bet----but how big a deal the media decides to make about him might be a more important factor. Every story that talks about his issues tends to marginalize Obama, but could also still point to McCain not being the real thing.

The media can get worked up to levels which are ultimately proven inappropriate by the actual voters---but it still amounts to time spent affecting the daily news cycles.

[Jeffro]

If that's the case that would be a very low total for them, as they are usually on the ballot in all fifty states or pretty close. Probably still time to make it in a lot of states.

The final vote was 324 for Barr to 276 for Ruwart and 26 for "none of the above."
The Libertarian Party is on the ballot in 28 states.

Most of the party access to ballots is determined by percentages in the previous election, no?

[kah]

Most of the party access to ballots is determined by percentages in the previous election, no?

Depends. Each state has different rules. Several states allow ballot access via petition drive. I know California does.