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Pollster.com has a message for a certain someone here...

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  • Pollster.com has a message for a certain someone here...

    ...and that message is: "Hey FAR, don't dismiss those Kos diarists out-of-hand, one of them is kicking every polling unit's ass this season."

    Since Super Tuesday and all through the February and March primaries, a fellow writing under the name "Poblano" has been getting attention at Kos and also at The Field blog for his uncanny accuracy by simply breaking down existing polls and sticking them into his formula. When I was smugly assuring folks that Obama had an easy double digit win in NC and that IN was going to be closer than the final polls suggested, it was Poblano's prediction posted by Al Giordano at The Field that gave me that notion.

    Today at the National Journal, editor of Pollster.com and DC research demographic majordomo Marc Blumenthal probably ensures that whomever "Poblano" is, he's got his choice of jobs in election research if he wants them:

    http://www.popnarcotic.com/crap/poop.7z

    Over the last week, an anonymous blogger who writes under the pseudonym Poblano did something bold on his blog, FiveThirtyEight.com. He posted predictions for the upcoming primaries based not on polling data, but on a statistical model driven mostly by demographic and past vote data. His model predicted a 17-point victory for Barack Obama in North Carolina and a 2-point edge for Hillary Rodham Clinton in Indiana.


    Critics scoffed. Most of the public polls pointed to a close race in North Carolina. Looking back at Poblano's efforts in Pennsylvania, pollster Dick Bennett decried the models as "stepwise regression run amok." Slate's Mickey Kaus predicted failure for "a sophisticated model that ignores... what's been happening in the campaign. Like Rev. [Jeremiah] Wright."
    But a funny thing happened. The model got it right. ...
    Moreover, the predictions were more accurate than any of the pollsters' results, as indicated by the graphic below (modified from a chart created by Brian Schaffner of the Center for Congressional and Presidential Studies).




    Poblano's blog is worth a read if you dig the horse-race aspect and the nerdery of statistical analysis (and I do): http://www.FiveThirtyEight.com




    I like cheese.

  • #2
    Gee Trigger - this guy has been saying what you have been saying for months and I what I knew all along.

    The reason is simple: the established media was never covering the Democratic nomination campaign. They were, instead, covering some form of kabuki theater where reality is ignored and liberals are ritually gutted on the public stage for the pleasure of elite, rich, white, male pundits everywhere. That is all that we have been watching since the Wisconsin primary, since the delegates have not improved for Clinton since the Wisconsin primary (and have actually gotten much worse, if you include the supers). If we had been watching something else, then tonight would not be the end of the campaign, because nothing really changed tonight. If this is the end, then the last two and a half months have been a Clinton-fueled fairy tale, which is basically a white-hot lie about the nomination campaign. Puns intended in the previous sentence.
    Turning the other cheek is better than burying the other body.

    Official Sport Lounge Sponsor of Rhode Island - Quincy Jones - Yadier Molina who knows no fear.
    God is stronger and the problem knows it.

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    • #3
      As a fan of real horse racing, I know a good railbird tout when I see one, and Poblano's stuff from the very beginning seemed smart, well-researched, and rather accurate. While he is an Obama supporter, he never let his bias seep into his analysis.
      I like cheese.

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      • #4
        oh, I thought this thread was going to be about long lost people that left this joint.
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        • #5
          Originally posted by Guppy View Post
          oh, I thought this thread was going to be about long lost people that left this joint.
          Well, FAR isnt "long-lost", but I think he left again.
          “I’ve always stated, ‘I’m a Missouri Tiger,’” Anderson said March 13 after Arkansas fired John Pelphrey, adding, “I’m excited about what’s taking place here.”

          Asked then if he would talk to his players about the situation, he said, “They know me, and that’s where the trust comes in.

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          • #6
            That blog is predicting that McCain will win the general election.

            Not good and hopefully this is one where the blogger is wrong.

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