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As excited as I am by the way the Cardinals have started, I cannot help but think on the lesson of the 1999 Chicago Cubs as a cautionary tale here.
I was living in Chicago that year, and the Cubs were coming off a year where they'd squeaked into the playoffs in '98. The experts predicted grim tidings for them, though, when Kerry Wood blew out his elbow in the early spring and would miss the whole season. As if to confound those experts, the Cubs managed to get to a 32-23, a game out of first.
Riggleman's Cubs had terrible secondary numbers, but guys were playing way over their heads; Kevin Tapani and Terry Mulholland had found some sort of Fountain Of Youth. Terry Adams appeared to be a serviceable closer. The team, despite Gary Gaetti hitting about .230, was winning games in the late innings on hustle and guile. The Cubs were the talk of Chicago.
...and then the bottom fell out. They had a 3-game set with the White Sox at Comiskey, and I remember going to two of those games and cheering lustily for the plucky "Kids Are Alright" Southsiders who managed to sweep the Cubs. From that point forward everything fell apart for the Northside Nine. Tapani crashed back to earth. Jon Lieber--who started 5-1--finished 10-11. Terry Adams remembered that he was Terry Adams, and the bullpen collapsed.
The Cubs, 32-23 on June 6th, would go 35-72 from that point forward to finish the year in dead last with a 67-95 record. They'd win exactly 6 games of 30 played in the month of August.
Keep that in mind watching these Go-Go Cardinals right now. This team has been a fun, fun story, but the secondary numbers are troublesome. This is a team without power on offense, and a team with a somewhat shaky bullpen. They're a team with a starting rotation dependent on Todd Wellemeyer and Braden Looper and their ability to pitch far over their heads.
What I'm saying is, don't get too caught up in it just yet. This is the easy part of the schedule, still. Interleague play will be brutal. Teams will come gunning after the Cardinals soon. All those runners left on will eventually bite us in the butt. This team isn't a 67-win team, but neither is it a 95-win team.
If they can win 83 games, it'll be something to see, with a future that only gets brighter for next year.
I was living in Chicago that year, and the Cubs were coming off a year where they'd squeaked into the playoffs in '98. The experts predicted grim tidings for them, though, when Kerry Wood blew out his elbow in the early spring and would miss the whole season. As if to confound those experts, the Cubs managed to get to a 32-23, a game out of first.
Riggleman's Cubs had terrible secondary numbers, but guys were playing way over their heads; Kevin Tapani and Terry Mulholland had found some sort of Fountain Of Youth. Terry Adams appeared to be a serviceable closer. The team, despite Gary Gaetti hitting about .230, was winning games in the late innings on hustle and guile. The Cubs were the talk of Chicago.
...and then the bottom fell out. They had a 3-game set with the White Sox at Comiskey, and I remember going to two of those games and cheering lustily for the plucky "Kids Are Alright" Southsiders who managed to sweep the Cubs. From that point forward everything fell apart for the Northside Nine. Tapani crashed back to earth. Jon Lieber--who started 5-1--finished 10-11. Terry Adams remembered that he was Terry Adams, and the bullpen collapsed.
The Cubs, 32-23 on June 6th, would go 35-72 from that point forward to finish the year in dead last with a 67-95 record. They'd win exactly 6 games of 30 played in the month of August.
Keep that in mind watching these Go-Go Cardinals right now. This team has been a fun, fun story, but the secondary numbers are troublesome. This is a team without power on offense, and a team with a somewhat shaky bullpen. They're a team with a starting rotation dependent on Todd Wellemeyer and Braden Looper and their ability to pitch far over their heads.
What I'm saying is, don't get too caught up in it just yet. This is the easy part of the schedule, still. Interleague play will be brutal. Teams will come gunning after the Cardinals soon. All those runners left on will eventually bite us in the butt. This team isn't a 67-win team, but neither is it a 95-win team.
If they can win 83 games, it'll be something to see, with a future that only gets brighter for next year.
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