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Obama's appeal to working-class whites faltering, polls show

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  • Obama's appeal to working-class whites faltering, polls show

    Hillary's going to pull this out due the the underlying racism of the white liberals.


    Obama's appeal to working-class whites faltering, polls show
    By ALAN FRAM, Associated Press Writer
    Sat May 3, 10:24 AM ET



    WASHINGTON - Barack Obama's problem winning votes from working-class whites is showing no sign of going away, and their impression of him is getting worse.



    Those are ominous signals as he hopes for strong performances next week in Indiana and North Carolina primaries that would derail the candidacy of Hillary Rodham Clinton, his rival for the Democratic presidential nomination. Those contests come as his candidacy has been rocked by renewed attention to his volatile former pastor, the Rev. Jeremiah Wright, and by his defeat in last month's Pennsylvania primary.

    In an Associated Press-Yahoo News poll in April, 53 percent of whites who have not completed college viewed Obama unfavorably, up a dozen percentage points from November. During that period, the numbers viewing Clinton and Republican candidate John McCain negatively have stayed about even.

    The April poll — conducted before the Pennsylvania contest — also showed an overwhelming preference for Clinton over Obama among working-class whites. They favored her over him by 39 percentage points, compared to a 10-point Obama lead among white college graduates. Obama also did worse than Clinton among those less-educated voters when matched up against Republican candidate John McCain.

    "It's the stuff about his preacher ... and the thing he said about Pennsylvania towns, how they turn to religion," Keith Wolfe, 41, a supermarket food stocker from Parkville, Md., said in a follow-up interview. "I don't think he'd be a really good leader."
    Just before the Pennsylvania primary, Obama said many small-town residents are bitter about their lives and turn for solace to religion and guns.

    Recent voting patterns underscore Obama's continued poor performance with these voters, who are often pivotal in general election swing states like Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania.

    In Democratic primaries held on or before Super Tuesday, Feb. 5, whites who have not finished college favored the New York senator by a cumulative 59 percent to 32 percent, according to exit polls of voters conducted for The Associated Press and the television networks.

    In primaries since Feb. 5, that group has favored Clinton by 64 percent to 34 percent. That includes Ohio and Pennsylvania, in which working-class whites have favored Clinton by 44 and 41 percentage points respectively.

    The AP-Yahoo poll shows less educated whites present a problem to Obama in part because of who they are. Besides being poorer, they tend to be older than white college graduates — and Clinton has done strongly with older white voters.

    Yet political professionals and analysts say more is at play. They blame Obama's problems with blue-collar whites on their greater reluctance to embrace his bid to become the first black president, and his failure to address their concerns about job losses and the battered economy specifically enough.

    Terry Madonna, a political science professor at Franklin & Marshall College in Lancaster, Pa., said Obama lost among working-class whites in the state because his message of how this generation's time has come did not address their economic needs.

    "While it's incredibly motivating and passionate and compelling, it lacks content," Madonna said. "Hillary would come in and relate to them, talk about the specifics of her policy."

    Pennsylvania also illustrated the problems racial attitudes among less educated whites are causing Obama.

    In exit polls, one in five of the state's white voters who haven't completed college said race was an important factor in choosing a candidate, about double the number of white college graduates who said so. Eight in 10 of them voted for Clinton over Obama, and only about half said they would vote for Obama over McCain in November.

    "The scab is pealed back off," Democratic pollster John Anzalone, not working for either presidential candidate, said of the latest attention focused on Wright and Obama's denunciations of him. In video clips of past sermons, Wright has damned the United States for its history of racism and accused the government of spreading the HIV virus to harm blacks.

    Obama pollster Cornell Belcher said that while working-class whites have favored Clinton, the fact that huge numbers of them and other voters have participated in Democratic contests boded well for the November election.

    "I don't think there's going to be erosion in the fall of a core group of Democratic voters," Belcher said.

    While less educated whites tend to vote less frequently than better educated voters, they are important because of their sheer number.

    Exit polls show they have comprised three in 10 voters in Democratic contests so far, a group that cannot be ignored in a contest that has seen Obama maintain a slim lead. They made up 43 percent of all voters in the 2004 presidential contest, when they heavily favored President Bush over Democrat John Kerry.

    Underlining his need to connect with these voters, Obama has geared some television ads in Indiana toward economic issues. In recent days he has turned to small events, rather than his trademark huge rallies, concentrating on the economy, including lunching with a blue-collar Indiana family while discussing their problems.

    He has let cameras record him playing basketball in hopes of connecting with the passionate fans of the sport who populate Indiana and North Carolina.

    The findings from the AP-Yahoo News poll are from interviews with 863 Democrats on a panel of adults questioned in November and April. It has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.3 percentage points.

    The poll was conducted over the Internet by Knowledge Networks, which initially contacted people using traditional telephone polling methods and followed with online interviews. People chosen for the study who had no Internet access were given it free.

    The exit poll is based on in-person interviews with more than 36,000 voters in 28 states that have held primaries this year in which both candidates actively competed. The margin of sampling error is plus or minus 1 percentage point, larger for some subgroups.
    Make America Great For Once.

  • #2
    Kev,

    Its the blue collar whites, not the the progressive white liberals, who are turning against Obama.

    Your opening statement is just wrong.
    “I’ve always stated, ‘I’m a Missouri Tiger,’” Anderson said March 13 after Arkansas fired John Pelphrey, adding, “I’m excited about what’s taking place here.”

    Asked then if he would talk to his players about the situation, he said, “They know me, and that’s where the trust comes in.

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    • #3
      Hillary is not going to pull this out. I googled FRAM and skimmed several of his articles several hours ago--centrist democrat---the AP is crawling with these kiss-ass reporters whose mantra is Carter and Clinton show that you have to have a southern centrist for a democrat to win.

      The big story is no longer Wright. It is the McCain-Clinton dumbass tax holiday thing. It does not even matter what happens Tuesday (it looks like Indiana might be closer for Obama, and North Carolina could be closer for Hillary), but the big deal is----those superdelegates, being the elitists that they are, hate this idiotic defining moment of "with us or against us" pandering by Hillary---so if it gains her any votes in Indiana or nc---and I question whether it will---they will not be impressed. Obama needs 134 of the remaining 408 delegates to be tied with Hillary on elected delegates. She needs 274 to be tied with him. She could have a humongous day next Tuesday and he would still cut that 134 number to 50---103 for her---84 for him. He would need 50 of the remaining 221---and a poll out to day shows him with a 12 point lead in Oregon.



      The thing that Obama supporters have been so enraged about---the superdelegates---are actually a firewall of protection for his nomination against last minute advances by Hillary.

      She could do better than than 60-40 at the polls in the remaining states---so the race is still on.
      Last edited by kjoe; 05-03-2008, 02:13 PM.
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      • #4
        Kah was kind enough to remind me that I have not pasted anything from tpm lately, so..fly on the wall is nobody---but---

        http://tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com...egate-math.php

        Red State Democrats like Barack Obama. Or at least, their elected officials and party leaders seem more predisposed to back him than do their blue-state counterparts. One site puts Obama ahead among red-state superdelegates, 57-30.

        And here's the kicker. It's quite likely that a generic Red State Democrat will draw more votes with Obama at the top of the ticket even if Hillary would have performed better against McCain. Let me repeat that, because it's such a vital point in understanding the present dynamic of the race. A Red State Dem is likely to get virtually the same number of votes from the Democratic base, irrespective of who tops the ticket (that is, even if some of those voters defect to McCain). But with Obama, they're likely to see depressed turnout among conservatives and huge numbers of new voters flocking to the polls. With Clinton, they get to rerun the last two presidential cycles, with a highly polarized electorate motivated on both sides.

        That, more than anything else, explains the riddle. Red State Democrats view politics through a profoundly local lens. They're supporting Obama because they'll do better if he's at the top of the ticket, even if Obama himself fares worse than Clinton would in their state or district.
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        • #5
          she may finish strong, but the numbers are not there.
          The supers are not going to go against the popular vote, the elected delegates, or the states won. They are mostly politicians, they go against the people who put them there and they are fucked.
          Be passionate about what you believe in, or why bother.

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          • #6
            OBAMA!!! has got this thing the only problem is keeping the blacks who want him named God of the Universe before the election quiet. Deep seeded insecurity is my guess. Not that they have every right to be insecure but.......

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            • #7
              Originally posted by Celtic View Post
              OBAMA!!! has got this thing the only problem is keeping the blacks who want him named God of the Universe before the election quiet. Deep seeded insecurity is my guess. Not that they have every right to be insecure but.......
              I will say this---the right-wing idiots Hillary has been joking around with at Fox and Pittsburgh---and her pairing off with McCain on the gas tax holiday make me think she has very little insecurity---even if she could use some.
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              • #8
                Originally posted by Bleacher Creature View Post
                Hillary's going to pull this out due the the underlying racism of the white liberals.
                Yeah... it's always other people's faults... not statements like this!

                Just before the Pennsylvania primary, Obama said many small-town residents are bitter about their lives and turn for solace to religion and guns.
                What if some white candidate said that urban blacks are bitter about their lives so they turn to gang violence and thuggery. Would you expect them to retain the black uneducated vote (if they ever even had it to begin with)?

                It's not always racism Kev. It's common sense.
                Last edited by Ohio Blues; 05-03-2008, 03:25 PM.
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                • #9
                  People are bitter, he was right, he just said it wrong.
                  It's why the change campaign is what everyone is running on.
                  Be passionate about what you believe in, or why bother.

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                  • #10
                    Obama could still shoot himself in the foot again on NBC tomorrow---he has Russert---Hillary is safely with George Stephonopoulous. I think Dean is on fox---that could be fun if they would ask him about the oil tax thing.

                    It might be wishful thinking on my part---but this seems like such a major blunder by Hillary---it enables Obama to take the attitude of "enough about Wright---we have a substantive difference on a major issue regarding taxes and oil companies and everything I have been talking about regarding washington for months---and her position is so stupid that the only people who agree are McCain and the shell oil lobbyist on her payroll".

                    She has handed him an issue on a silver platter which almost defines both of them the way he wants them defined.
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                    • #11
                      Its never Barack's fault.
                      When you say to your neighbor, "We're having a loud party on Saturday night if that's alright with you," what you really mean is, "We're having a loud party on Saturday night."

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                      • #12
                        I made a mistake in posting something about Hillary's choice for the Kentucky Derby in the thread about the Kentucky derby. I should not have done that---but in the washington d.c. thread by Ben Smith---there are more than 75 posts about the subject---ranging from criticism of Obama's supporters for joking about it, to the cynicism of Hillary sending Chelsea to the track to bet on the horse---in preparation for hoped for bonus coverage of a hoped for metaphor--to the simple assertion that he should not be posting anything about it at all. A sample of some comments:


                        Yesterday Hillary Clinton said she was betting on the filly, Eight Belles, to win, place and show. Could a filly from Delaware Park backed by Hillary Rodham Clinton have a chance or was she in the "wrong race"? Hillary sent Chelsea to leverage "free" publicity by backing (and wagering on) the only female in the race. It would be interesting to review all the clever analogies prepared for the Sunday news shows if the filly had "beat the boys". Not only did the filly, Eight Belles, lose to Big Brown but she broke both front legs and was destroyed in front of 150,000 racing fans and millions more watching on TV around the world. What a sad sports story and an unbelievable political disaster. Chelsea must have hustled quickly off the track through a side exit.

                        Posted By: WT | May 03, 2008 at 07:27 PM

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                        Ben, I really think you should pull this post. This was a very tragic event. It is extremely poor taste to make light of it. We were watching and nobody saw it happen. The announcers came on and said the horse was down but it took several minutes before they could explain what happened. I thought NBC did a very poor job afterward. They were almost indifferent about it. It is time for people to seriously evaluate the justification for this sport after Barbaro and now Eight Belles. Very, very sad.

                        Posted By: Marie | May 03, 2008 at 07:31 PM

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                        Big Brown..New nic for Barack?

                        Posted By: WT | May 03, 2008 at 07:31 PM

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                        you people, including ben, are all sick

                        Posted By: tex | May 03, 2008 at 07:32 PM
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                        • #13
                          Do you wash your hands continuously?
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                          • #14
                            Originally posted by madyaks View Post
                            People are bitter, he was right, he just said it wrong.
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                            • #15
                              Originally posted by lazydaze View Post
                              Do you wash your hands continuously?
                              I could start the night by singing "Me and My Shadow", but that would not quite hit the correct note.
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