Phil Rogers picks the Cards to finish last

[backstop]

Cubs win 95, Cards lose 93

[Jeffro]

No team in the majors has lost more talent since last season (Scott Rolen, Jim Edmonds, David Eckstein, Preston Wilson, Troy Percival and Kip Wells, most notably)

Mookie Jr. had about 30 ABs and anyone who would describe what Kip Wells did as "talent," well...

[ShortHop]

No team in the majors has lost more talent since last season (Scott Rolen, Jim Edmonds, David Eckstein, Preston Wilson, Troy Percival and Kip Wells, most notably)

Kip Wells? Really? You're going to put Kip Wells on that list?

[Blues Fan in TX]

I have the Cards at 67 - 95.

[ShortHop]

Mookie Jr. had about 30 ABs and anyone who would describe what Kip Wells did as "talent," well...

Might as well put So Taguchi on the list while you're at it.

[Jack Daniels]

Kip Wells? Really? You're going to put Kip Wells on that list?

Agreed.

Over under....Cards wins/losses vs. HR allowed by Kip Wells in 2008 with the Rockies?

[raise]

The Cardinals will open the year with 4 known above average players on their roster. They absolutely have the potential to lose 90+ games.

[CD]

I think the Cards may well lose 90 games but I don't think it's because of a loss of talent (most of which was in severe decline or injury prone anyway). I think they were really lucky to win 78 or whatever last year.

[RedBirdBrain]

No team in the majors has lost more talent since last season (Scott Rolen, Jim Edmonds, David Eckstein, Preston Wilson, Troy Percival and Kip Wells, most notably)

All.credibility.lost.

-RBB

[Jeffro]

Might as well put So Taguchi on the list while you're at it.

At least I'll miss him some.

[raise]

All.credibility.lost.

-RBB

Just because he is stupid, unfortunately, doesn't mean he is wrong.

[AWSmith98]

If the Cardinals can get their rotation together, they could win 10-20 more games than expected.

[Jack Daniels]

I think the Cards may well lose 90 games but I don't think it's because of a loss of talent (most of which was in severe decline or injury prone anyway). I think they were really lucky to win 78 or whatever last year.

The TLR factor?

How bad could this team be without #10? How Good?

[i.am.js]

Pirates 74-88? O RLY?

I have no reason to think this team will improve. This team has made zero major league signings this off season, the bullpen is shaky at best, and still have major ?s in center, on third, and behind the plate.

66-96 wouldn't surprise me in the least

[CD]

The TLR factor?

How bad could this team be without #10? How Good?

I think TLR deserves a lot of credit for the team getting to 78 wins. I wouldn't call it his best season with the Cards (hard to argue with what he did in 2002) but it was probably the next best.

If I had told you last year at this time that the Cardinals would have arguably their worst ever starting pitching (with Carpenter and Mulder combining to make only four starts the entire year); Albert Pujols would have respectable numbers but still career-lows in homers, RBI and runs scored and his second lowest OBP and SLG; Rolen, Edmonds and Eckstein would each miss 45-50 games; and Rolen, Edmonds and Encarnacion would combine for 29 homers and 158 RBI (or that Ankiel and Ludwick would combine for more homers than Rolen and Edmonds); then throw in the emotional issues that would come from a teammate tragically dying, how many wins would you have predicted last season? I'd have probably said no more than 70.

As for this season, I think it's a lot to ask that much again. I'm hoping TLR really is buying into the youth movement and will stick it out with the young guys even as they struggle. I think it's unrealistic to expect that Ankiel, Barton, Schumaker and Duncan will all be consistent all season. I expect all, and especially Ankiel and Barton, to have their ups and downs. Who knows how much (or little) they'll get out of Kennedy and Izturis.

And the starting pitching remains a mess. Is it realistic to expect Wellemeyer to be as good this season? Can Looper and Wainwright remain healthy after logging so many innings for the first time in their careers? (I honestly don't even want to think about Wainwright breaking down but there is a history of pitchers breaking down the year after throwing a lot of innings for the first time--and I'm not pinning this on TLR/Duncan, it happens all over baseball).

I suppose the one caveat I'll attach to this is the starting pitching. If Lohse can be about as good as he was last season and Wainwright doesn't break down and continues to develop into a top-level starter, and then Carpenter, Mulder and Pineiro can all be back and pitching effectively by midseason, the team could come close to 78 wins again. I just have a hard time trusting Mulder's recovery at this point and I would hope they'll be ultra-cautious with Carpenter given his past arm injuries and the money they have invested in him going forward. I have more faith in this trio for 2009 than I do for 2008.