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2021 Kentucky Derby; 5/1 with post time of 6:57pm (EDT) NBC

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  • 2021 Kentucky Derby; 5/1 with post time of 6:57pm (EDT) NBC

    Post position, horse, trainer, jockey, morning-line odds

    1. Known Agenda, Todd Pletcher, Irad Ortiz Jr., 6-1

    2. Like the King, Wesley Ward, Drayden Van Dyke, 50-1

    3. Brooklyn Strong, Daniel Velazquez, Umberto Rispoli, 50-1

    4. Keepmeinmind, Robertino Diodoro, David Cohen, 50-1

    5. Sainthood, Todd Pletcher, Corey Lanerie, 50-1

    6. O Besos, Greg Foley, Marcelino Pedroza, 20-1

    7. Mandaloun, Brad Cox, Florent Geroux, 15-1

    8. Medina Spirit, Bob Baffert, John Velazquez, 15-1

    9. Hot Rod Charlie, Doug O'Neill, Flavien Prat, 8-1

    10. Midnight Bourbon, Steve Asmussen, Mike Smith, 20-1

    11. Dynamic One, Todd Pletcher, Jose Ortiz, 20-1

    12. Helium, Mark Casse, Julien Leparoux, 50-1

    13. Hidden Stash, Vicki Oliver, Rafael Bejarano, 50-1

    14. Essential Quality, Brad Cox, Luis Saez, 2-1

    15. Rock Your World, John Sadler, Joel Rosario, 5-1

    16. King Fury, Kenny McPeek, Brian Hernandez Jr., 20-1

    17. Highly Motivated, Chad Brown, Javier Castellano, 10-1

    18. Super Stock, Steve Asmussen, Ricardo Santana Jr., 30-1

    19. Soup and Sandwich, Mark Casse, Tyler Gaffalione, 30-1

    20. Bourbonic, Todd Pletcher, Kendrick Carmouche, 30-1
    June 9, 1973 - The day athletic perfection was defined.

  • #2
    I handicap by projecting what I think winning Beyer will be, and then identifying those who are and are not capable of running it. That is a less reliable approach in Derby than normal races because 3 year olds are being asked to do something that few, if any, have done by running a mile and a quarter, and because 3 year olds can improve by leaps and bounds between races. Nonetheless, using a projected winning BSF of 101, here are my thoughts:

    The "well within their reaches" group:

    Essential Quality
    Hot Rod Charlie
    Highly Motivated
    Rock Your World

    Obviously, this group is coming to the race with the highest set of last out Beyer figs and would not need to improve by much to be within the realm of the projected fig. Rock Your World reminds me of War Emblem. He is coming into the race with the highest of the high figs and now appears that he will be loose on the lead with the defection of Caddo River. I am betting he goes off at less than his 5/1 ML. I like Hot Rod Charlie because he is coming out of what I think will be ultimately proven to be the key prep race, the Louisiana Derby, and he is versatile enough to win on or off the pace. Connections know how to win the Derby but not a big fan of him losing Joel. I think his 8/1 odds are about right and may make him my key horse in all bets. I am not a fan of Essential Quality because I have not seen much improvement in him since BC Juvenile win (in fact, it has only been a length). Third race of a form cycle is often the one that makes horses run their best, but I think we may have already seen it. He won't be on any win ticket I have. Neither Highly Motivated nor Mandaloun would surprise me as they only have to run a length or two better than their best to hit the projected fig, but Highly Motivated's best race came off of a race in which he was on the lead in a slow pace (and he won't be on the lead in the Derby) and Mandaloun's last was too much of a clunker for me to think he is sitting on his best. (And is it just me or does Brad Cox seem like he always overrates his horses' workouts to the press? Another reason I am discounting the recent works of Mandaloun)

    The they could be cycling up to their best race group:

    Known Agenda
    King Fury

    Of these 3, I like O Besos the most. He has the higher BSF by a small margin, but I think he is coming into the race an improving sort who will get better with the distance. The fact that he has glowing work reports from Mike Welsch doesn't dampen my enthusiasm either. He will be on all of my tickets. Pletcher always breaks off a horse like this in me when I leave him off of pick 4 and 5 tickets, but I just do not believe Known Agenda is sitting on a 101. Likewise for King Fury. But I am not going to call anyone foolish if they see either of the two I am discounting as sitting on a potential winning race.

    They've run a competitive race before, just not recently:

    Brooklyn Strong
    Medina Spirit

    Medina Spirit has a past 99 on his dance card (actually less with weight adjustment) and he is a Baffert horse, but he has lost convincingly since then and I see him as a vanity entry by Baffert. Brooklyn Strong was impressive winning the Remsen in December but has only run once since then, a 5th place finish in the very slowly run Wood Memorial. He is the last horse in and may improve off of a race he clearly needed. Question is, can he improve enough to run a 101, and I think the answer is no.

    The close but not close enough group

    Midnight Bourbon

    This is a one horse category. Midnight Bourbon is always in the mix at the end, just never in first and never a threat to finish first. He ran a good second in the La Derby and maybe he will make that jump up to a 101, but I think his max is 98. Asmussen, like Pletcher, always breaks off horses like this in me.

    The "yeah they won last out, but there's too much improvement required to consider them threats to win" group

    Like the King
    Super Stock

    The category says all that there is to say about my opinion on their chances to win.

    The "you must have entered on the premise that a blind squirrel can find an acorn" group:

    Dynamic One
    Hidden Stash
    Soup and Sandwich

    These are horses that have run races that just aren't fast enough to win the Derby, that they didn't win when they ran slowly, and with no indication that a big improvement should be expected. The most delusional of owners/trainers in this group is that of Hidden Stash.

    The I can't explain it but I think this horse may be better than his final times group


    If you adjust Helium's Tampa Bay Derby win for his trip, you come up with a 91 or so BSF. That was his first race as a 3 year old, his first race on a non-synthetic surface, and his first race off a long layoff. He has been unconventionally prepared for the Derby with no intervening prep race since the Tampa Bay Derby. His trainer is not stupid, so this can't be madness. If he can make the jump he made in BSF from 10/20 to 3/21 in the Derby, 101 is in his range. There isn't a single precedent or handicapping angle I know of to back this guy, but I can at least say it was possible if he happens to run his eyeballs out.
    June 9, 1973 - The day athletic perfection was defined.


    • #3
      Essential Quality will be the 18th undefeated horse to be favored in the Derby. 8 of the 17 undefeated Derby favorites won. The only undefeated Derby winner not sent off as the favorite was Barbaro in 2006. Rock Your World could be the 2nd.

      Only twice in the last 42 years has the Derby produced a result where the favorite won and the second choice ran 2nd. 2016 when favorite Nyquist won and 2nd choice Exaggerator was 2nd and 2004 when favored Smarty Jones won and 2nd choice Lion Heart was 2nd.

      PP 14 has the longest drought for any PP which has produced a winner. No horse has broken from PP 14 and won the Derby since Carry Back in 1961. In that span eight horses have been a Top-3 betting choice including 1999 favorite General Challenge and 2020 favorite Tiz the Law.


      • #4
        i wonder how moser is doing... i see he has been arguing with sam page a lot


        • #5
          Gonna drink beers, don't have a funny hat


          • #6
            Post time is 5:57 Central.


            • #7
              Ppg’s Derby is the key prep race. Horses from that race are Hot Rod Charlie, Midnight Bourbon, O Besos and Mandaloun
              June 9, 1973 - The day athletic perfection was defined.



              • #8
                Would like to book this.

                June 9, 1973 - The day athletic perfection was defined.



                • #9
                  June 9, 1973 - The day athletic perfection was defined.



                  • #10
                    Rock Your World
                    Midnight Bourbon


                    • #11
                      If Ruffian broke her leg now, would they still have to put her down?
                      Do what thou wilt shall be the whole of the law ~



                      • #12
                        Rock Your World. Just because.


                        • #13
                          Where can I bet on this thing online? Draft Kings doesn't have it.


                          • #14


                            • #15
                              6,8,15 to win
                              9,14,15 exacta box
                              8,9,14 exacta box
                              8,9,17 to show