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Baseball's Bill James standings....

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  • Baseball's Bill James standings....

    NL Central Bill James Standings


    I don't know how many of you are familiar with Bill James' Pythogrean Theorum to calculate estimated wins.

    It goes like this:

    w%=(RS^2)/((RS^2)+(RA^2))

    Through 16, the Cards have scored 108 Runs and allowed 96.
    This comes out to:
    RS:
    6.75 per game
    1093.5 per season
    RA:
    6 per game
    972 per season


    Based on that, their estimated winning % = 1194649/(1194649+944784) = 1194649/2139433 = 55.84
    That comes out to 90 wins.



    What does this mean?



    Nothing. It's just friday forum fodder.
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  • #2
    Did you take BCS into account?

    I thought not.

    Comment


    • #3
      We need Stan to participate in this thread....
      If you believe in something sacrifice a hobo to it or don't bother.

      Comment


      • #4
        If you really want to be cool, you'll post the same for all NL Central teams.
        When you say to your neighbor, "We're having a loud party on Saturday night if that's alright with you," what you really mean is, "We're having a loud party on Saturday night."

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        • #5
          but why would he want to start being cool now?

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          • #6
            BBZ -

            problem is right now the sample size is too small.

            But 90 wins would be nice for this division.

            han solo

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            • #7
              For fun and to be cool, I decided to figure out all the standings across the division.


              I've included estimated current wins and a +/- count as well to see how teams are doing vs. the theorum.


              I'll try to keep this up over the whole season, but I'm also very lazy, so who knows.

              NL Central Bill James Standings
              Official Lounge Sponsor of:
              MIGOTS!, TJ Oshie, David Freese, Sponsoring Softball Players, Trout, Bon Jovi, Cold, hard facts, rigidly defined with mathematical precision, The abortion boat, which traveled to Poland in 2003 and Ireland in 2001.

              Former Lounge Sponsor of:
              The Hebrew Hammer, BBZ, Foods that start with the letter 'Q', Paul 'Visor' Mitchell, FBBHOFer Brett "William" Wallace, BBFHOF, THE LALPHABET: A B C D E F G H I J K L M N I Z M N O P Q R S T U V Z T U V X Y X Z, The Return of MarkD.

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              • #8
                And here I thought 90 wins is pretty good, only to find out that puts us in 3rd place, 19 games out.
                I'm always right.

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                • #9
                  I read that Pythagoras lead the Athens League in home runs for 3 straight seasons. If you compare his stats to today's players he was twice as prolific as Barry Bonds. Yet his team, the Mykenae Medusas, never won the championship due to poor pitching.


                  Seriously, what does this theorem have to do with Pythagoras?
                  You can't kill terror
                  So let's declare war
                  There's so many dead that we can't keep score

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                  • #10
                    I see nothing that involves squaring A, B, or C and NOTHING about adding them together.

                    Fraud.
                    When you say to your neighbor, "We're having a loud party on Saturday night if that's alright with you," what you really mean is, "We're having a loud party on Saturday night."

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                    • #11
                      a2+b2=c2...

                      And BBZ formula has fuck all to do w/ it...

                      This thread...saved by your favourite math major

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                      • #12
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                        • #13
                          James' statistics are interesting when it comes to analyzing the past....they mean squat for predicting the future.

                          Baseball is played on a field with balls, bats and gloves.

                          It is not played in a calculator.
                          Go Cards ...12 in 13.


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                          • #14
                            Originally posted by TTB@Apr 23 2004, 05:02 PM
                            James' statistics are interesting when it comes to analyzing the past....they mean squat for predicting the future.

                            Baseball is played on a field with balls, bats and gloves.

                            It is not played in a calculator.
                            That exact thought is what is being challenged by sabermetrics, though. Many people (myself included) believe that looking at a prospect's numbers are a lot more important than looking at his muscle size, or whether or not he's a 5-tool player.

                            You're right, baseball is played on a field, not in a calculator. But the calculator side of the situation determines who will most likely be the best player.

                            Thus, I don't know if I disagree with your statement, as it's something intuitive. But I don't think you should discount sabermetrics in identifying future stars.
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                            • #15
                              Originally posted by TTB@Apr 23 2004, 05:02 PM
                              James' statistics are interesting when it comes to analyzing the past....they mean squat for predicting the future.

                              Baseball is played on a field with balls, bats and gloves.

                              It is not played in a calculator.
                              Wrong. Statistics are the best tool available to anaylize prospects along with current players. This sample size is too small to accurately predict the outcome of the division, but once it gets larger we should have a good idea about how the season will end up.

                              BBZ didn't mention that if you have more or less wins than the expected that it is one technique to analyze the manager. Tony is +1 as we stand today, but again the sample size is too small to really determine anything from them.

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