The Official Kentucky Derby Thread

[tallahassee blues fan]

You sure you guys wouldn't rather name your horse "Off Again," so that when the inevitable loss came, the chart would show that the winner beat Off again?

[BringBackZezel]

Originally posted by tallahassee blues fan@Apr 19 2004, 11:13 AM
You sure you guys wouldn't rather name your horse "Off Again," so that when the inevitable loss came, the chart would show that the winner beat Off again?

I know a softball team that was named "with themselves"

Whenever they had a game, the other team was always playing with themselves.

[tallahassee blues fan]

Undoubtedly, those are college intramural team names.

I know the folks in Louisville would be proud of the direction of this discussion right now.


So nobody knows the only Missouri bred to win the Derby? Here's a hint: He's a famous brother.

[BringBackZezel]

Originally posted by tallahassee blues fan@Apr 19 2004, 11:30 AM
Undoubtedly, those are college intramural team names.

I know the folks in Louisville would be proud of the direction of this discussion right now.


So nobody knows the only Missouri bred to win the Derby? Here's a hint: He's a famous brother.

SEABISCUIT!!!!!

[tallahassee blues fan]

[BringBackZezel]

Originally posted by tallahassee blues fan@Apr 19 2004, 11:30 AM
Here's a hint: He's a famous brother.

are you saying he's black?

[tallahassee blues fan]

Well, if you're thinking Shaft, I can tell you you're wrong.

[tallahassee blues fan]

And DOWN THE STRETCH THEY COME! Early forecast for Louisville on Saturday is for showers. :(

[Rdog3933]

I'm still waiting for the horse named "Alpo"...

the Dog

[madyaks]

Originally posted by tallahassee blues fan@Apr 19 2004, 11:30 AM
Okay, we're inside two weeks to go to the Derby. Let's get the fever started with a trivia question aimed at the locals on this board:

Name the only Missouri bred horse to win the Kentucky Derby?

May 2, 1904: Laska Durnell became the first woman to own a Kentucky Derby starter and winner when longshot Elwood took the 30th Run for the Roses. Elwood, the only Missouri-bred to win the Kentucky Derby, was also the first Derby winner to be bred by a woman, Mrs. J.B. Prather

[tallahassee blues fan]

Nice job Madyaks.

[tallahassee blues fan]

Here's my long, week-before-Derby analysis, which I reserve the right to change based upon weather conditions and final post positions:

The Cliff's Edge:

Pro: He has the highest last out Beyer of any of the horses coming into the race (111, that arguably could be a 115). He beat arguably the second or third leading contender in this race in winning the Blue Grass. His trainer knows how to get a horse ready for and win the Derby. He's two for two at Churchill Downs, including a stakes win. Though his sire was noted primarily as a sprinter, he's sired one Derby winner thereby eliminating any questions as to whether Cliffy can get the distance.

Con: Bounce candidate. His fig in the Blue Grass improved almost 12-15 points from the Florida Derby (depending on whether you use the original Fla. Derby fig or the adjusted one now being used by the Beyer calculators). That jump is as high as the one made by Read the Footnotes when winning the Fountain of Youth, and we know what happened to RTF in the Fla. Derby.

Final Analysis: I hated this horse coming through the Derby preps and thought that he would be an automatic throwout until he ran his eye-popping number in the Blue Grass. Now, I'm a convert and the only question that I must answer before declaring him the likely winner is: will he bounce? He's an ideal candidate because he simply has not been a consistent horse, and has not shown the ability to run back-to-back great races. If he does bounce, he's a throwout. On the other hand, I'm not convinced that "bouncing" is a proven scientific fact, and believe that Zito is a good enough trainer to overcome it anyway. The last-out-Beyer-approach to handicapping the Derby has simply been too successful in the past to ignore, and I believe it trumps any bounce fears I have. I think he runs back to his Keeneland race, and only loses this one if the pace is soft or if Tapit, Borrego or Friends Lake make the type of improvement that each is signalling.

Tapit

Pro: His race in the Wood was visually the most impressive of all of the three year old Derby preps besides the Fountain of Youth. He won in spite of not being fit, and some have argued that it was acheived while overcoming a significant speed bias. His win in the Laurel Futurity last year was probably the most visually impressive win by a two year old. He is trained by a genius, who can win any race he sets his mind to win. There are no distance limitations suggested by his breeding.

Con: His wins, despite being visually impressive, have not produced a high enough Beyer number to win the Derby. (the Wood was originally assigned a 95, then bumped to a 98, which is 12-15 points shy of what it will take to win the Derby.) He has only had two races this year. His trainer has had his training schedule forced by the hand of an overbearing owner. His jockey, while tremendously successful in Maryland, has never won a Derby and has little Derby experience.

Final Analysis: It's simple. Do you believe he's sitting on a 15 point improvement in the Derby? I think the answer is yes, but he's one horse whose workouts and acclimation to the Derby track I'll be watching closely.

Castledale

Pro: He won the Santa Anita Derby. Jeff Mullins is an outstanding trainer.

Con: The Santa Anita Derby Beyer fig, though a lifetime best for the horse on the dirt, was only a 101, which isn't enough to win the Derby. His trainer his good but he has little Derby experience. His jockey has even less Derby experience, and is not considered to be that good among the West coast riders.

Final Analysis: Castledale's race in the Santa Anita Derby came from nowhere, as he had primarily run on the turf and did not have a particularly distinguished record doing that. Bounce theorists may have to apply their theory here. However, his progression from Beyers in the mid eighties on the turf to a 103 on the dirt (adjusted to a 101 for the Derby weight of 126 pounds) may signal that this is a horse that is waking up at just the right time, and that another move forward is possible. I'm inclined to believe that the indistinguished career of this horse suggests that he moves backward, not forward, in the Derby and does not finish in the money.

Friend's Lake

Pro: He won the Florida Derby, beating both Tapit and Cliff's Edge. He's impeccably bred, and should get better as the distance of the race grows.

Con: The Florida Derby was the slowest of the Derby preps, and the arguably was confirmed when Tapit came back to win the Wood in the second slowest time of the preps. He has not had a race since the Florida Derby. HIs jockey and trainer, though both good, have little Derby experience or success.

Final Analysis: I am very tempted to pick this horse to win it all and, if he does, he'll pay nicely. He showed a nice progression of numbers in his two year old year, and now is developing another progression in his three year old campaign which, if continued, will put him at the projected winning level of 111-115. The low Florida Derby number appears to have been a product of a very dry racing surface, which he (and not the Cliff's Edge) overcame. His trainer is taking the unorthodox route of skipping April as a racing month, but I think this horse could be a superstar in the making that can overcome that approach. His latest work at Payson had his trainer effusive in his praise of the horse. If he works well at Churchill, he's going to make my top three.

Smarty Jones:

Pro: He's undefeated (6 for 6) and has won stakes races at three different tracks. He's one of the few horses in this year's three year old crop to run consistent Beyers above the century mark. Interestingly, he'll be running on lasix for the first time in the Derby. (which isn't so much a pro as it is a protection against a con)

Cons: His figures, adjusted for the Derby weight of 126 pounds, top out at about 106. Though his numbers are better than any of the other three year old preps (except for the Blue Grass and the Fountain of Youth), there's not much reason to believe he'll improve dramatically at the Derby distance of a mile and a quarter to reach the needed 110 or so to win. His pedigree screams miler, at best. He's by Illusive Quality (who's by the miler, Gone West) out of a Smile mare (Smile was himself a miler who won the Breeder's Cup Sprint). Neither his trainer nor his jockey have much Derby experience, and neither has previously won a Derby.

Final Analysis: Is Smarty Jones a small time winner or is he the next Secretariat? His workout at Churchill Downs this weekend had people talking about how impressive he is. I originally thought Smarty’s breeding and Lion Heart’s superior early speed would doom Smarty down the stretch. Now, I’m not so sure. My only advice now is not to throw him out of the exotics.

Limehouse

Pro: Has run in three graded stakes events this year, winning two and finishing six lengths behind The Cliff's Edge in the third. Trained by one of the best on the east coast, Todd Pletcher.

Con: Adjusted numbers for all three stakes don't top the century mark, and appear to have flattened out around 98. Pletcher, for all of his great work, has never won a Derby. Horse is by Grand Slam, who's by gone West, which doesn't scream mile and a quarter. (See Smarty Jones above)

Final Analysis: He's a throwout in my book. His major win of the year came in the Hutcheson, which is at seven furlongs and probably is more ideally suited to his breeding than the mile and a quarter Derby. I think his Beyer numbers reflect his ability at two turn events, and 98 won't make the top five.

Action this Day

Pro: Won the Breeder's Cup Juvenile. Trained by one of the best in the world in big races, Dick Mandella.

Con: Oops, I forgot. No Breeder's Cup Juvenile winner has ever won the Kentucky Derby. After posting a respectable 96.5 Beyer fig in his 2003 comeback race (the Sham), he's tailed off badly to sub 90s since. He's beginning to show signs of being a one hit wonder.

Final Analysis: Though lots of folks have gone broke underestimating Dick Mandella's abilities, this horse is another throwout for me. Nothing about his three year old campaign suggests this horse is going to peak or even move forward on Derby day. I'm left to wonder if Mandella is running him on the theory that a Breeder's Cup Juvenile winner should be competitive in a Kentucky Derby.

Read the Footnotes

Pro: Revved the racing world with one of the more scintillating wins of the year in the Fountain of Youth, posting an adjusted Beyer of 111. Capped off a good two year old campaign by winning the Nashua and Remsen, the latter at a mile and an eighth, beating wise guy favorite fo the Derby, Master David, in the Remsen.

Con: Ran a pitiful Florida Derby and has not raced since mid-March (taking the same route to the Derby as Friends Lake) Trainer is not a past Derby winner. Breeding (by Smoke Glacken) does not scream mile and a quarter horse. Spun by Jerry Bailey, his rider in the Fountain of Youth and Florida Derby, for Wimbledon.

Final Analysis: Because of his strenuous Fountain of Youth, most felt that Read the Footnotes was a bounce candidate in the Florida Derby and they were right. He has been given plenty of time to recover and, if he runs back to the FOY number, he's a legitimate threat to win. But the likelihood that the horse will run back to that race with no prep since the Fla. Derby seems small. A good indicator of whether a horse is going to return to form is whether his jockey decides to continue riding him, and RTF's regular rider, Jerry Bailey, said no. Bailey's alternative mounts are not exactly world beaters, and he has a great jock agent, so you have to think that he would have gone with Footnotes if there was any sign that his works since the Florida Derby signalled a return to the FOY form. However, please note that he has worked well since the Fla. Derby.

Wimbledon

Pro: Won the Louisiana Derby in first start after breaking maiden. Beat next out Illinois Derby winner, Pollard's Vision and next out second place Arkansas Derby finisher, Borrego. Trained by the current king of Derby trainers, Bob Baffert, and ridden by arguably the best rider on the planet, Jerry Bailey. Has already worked well at Churchill.

Con: Coming off a disappointing nine length loss to Castledale in the Santa Anita Derby. Winning Beyer numbers are nothing to get the heart racing, as adjusted number for maiden win is 95, and adjusted number for Louisiana Derby is 99.

Final Analysis: Wimbledon was an early favorite to win the Derby, in good part because of the visually impressive way he won the Louisiana Derby and in part because everyone assumed his trainer would move him forward from there. It didn't pan out that way and, being the Beyer disciple I am, I'm not inclined to ignore the numbers and jump on his bandwagon now. I do so with a great deal of reluctance, and with the knowledge that Baffert fooled us in a similar way with a horse named Real Quiet not so long ago.

Lion Heart

Pro: Finished close seconds in San Rafael and Blue Grass after running fast early. His adjusted last out Beyer has only be topped in Derby preps by the Cliff's Edge and Read the Footnotes.

Con: He may be too quick for his own good. If hooked by any other horse in the field, he is likely to go too fast, too early. His trainer and jock have neither won a Derby, and his trainer is only winning generally at a 10% clip this year.

Final Analysis: I love horses who battle for an early lead with a horse, put that horse a way, and then dig in competitively down the stretch with a closer who has gotten an ideal trip, and that's exactly what Lion Heart has done in his previous two races. He's probably my key horse in the race. If you overlay his pace figs with those of the other supposed speed horses in the field (Smarty Jones, Pollards Vision), it looks like he'll clear them. That gives him the opportunity to avoid traffic and dictate the pace of the race. If he can back up the pace sufficiently, he'll pull a War Emblem and wire the field. I see that as a real possibility, or at least that some version of that scene will play out so that this horse is guaranteed to hit the board. The only possible way for him not to would be if one of the other speed horses, particularly Smarty Jones, draws the one or two hole so that their jockeys are sending them early to avoid traffic in the first turn.

Birdstone

Pro: Won the Champagne Stakes impressively as a two year old. Trained by Nick Zito.

Cons: Was absolutely pathetic in his last out, the Lanes End. Jerry Bailey was again offered the mount, but declined in favor of Wimbledon. Did not race in April.

Final Analysis: He was an early favorite among many for the Derby, but has simply not lived up to the promise suggested by his Champange win. His adjusted Beyer figs in his two races this year are 89 and 74.5 which, if duplicated in the Derby, will put him at the back of the pack. Nothing about his training suggests that he's going to jump up and run a big race here, and Bailey's spining him speaks volumes to me. I think Zito is running him for much the same reason that Mandella may be running Action this Day, and I'm throwing him out.

Minister Eric

Pro: Finished second in both Del Mar Futurity and Breeder's Cup Juvenile. Richard Mandella trains.

Con: Has yet to win a stakes race. His adjusted Beyers have yet to top the century mark. Alex Solis, his regular rider, spun him for Master David.

Final Analysis: Again, betting against Richard Mandella can cost you, but this horse shows no more promise at this time than Mandella's other entrant, Action this Day. Mandella could have run him in the Lexington, but opted out of that for a much easier allowance race at Keeneland, and he only ran an adjusted Beyer of 95. Losing your regular rider (who was on his back in the Keeneland allowance race) tells me that nothing about that race suggests a move forward. I'm tossing him too.

Master David

Pro: Beaten only half a length in the Wood by Tapit in his first race in two months. Finished second to Read the Footnotes in last year's Remsen. Trained by America's best big race trainer, Bobby Frankel. Alex Solis, his jockey, had other riding options but stayed with this horse.

Cons: Beyers have not yet reached a level to suggest he's good enough to win. Trip in the Wood was ideal and probably can't be duplicated in the Derby. Frankel has never won a Derby.

Final Analysis: This will be the wise guys' horse. Frankel is on record saying that his horse wasn't cranked for the Wood, and most will be expecting an improvement in the Derby. That's probably true, but will it be enough? His fig progression in his three races this year is 89.5, 95, 95.5. He'll have to improve another fifteen points to have a chance to win and, while I wouldn't ever put that kind of improvement beyond the capabilities of the trainer, I don't see it happening. He's got to be used in exotic wagers, but I'm not using him to win.

Pollard's Vision

Pro: Won the Illinois Derby. Trained by Todd Pletcher.

Con: Adjusted Beyer fig for Illinois Derby win is only a 101, and that was achieved on an easy, loose lead, which he won't get in the Derby. Adjusted Beyer figs for last three races have been 94, 95, 101, which aren't good enough to win the Derby. Neither trainer nor jock (Eibar Coa) have ever won a Derby.

Final Analysis: This horse might be a sentimental favorite with some because he's named after Seabiscuit's jockey due to his blindness in one eye. However, sentimentality has no place in handicapping (just like there's no crying in baseball) and the hard fact is that this horse is not talented enough to win. He does show a nice fig jump in his last race which, if continued, would put him in the mix for third or fourth. However, when I see a horse improve his fig under as easy a set of circumstances as Pollard's Vision got in the Illinois Derby, I'm not projecting another move forward in a race where I know he won't find those same set of circumstances. I think this horse's ability is like Pletcher's other horse, Limehouse, and that his Derby fig will regress to something in the mid to high nineties level. I'm throwing him out too.

St. Averil

Pro: Won the Santa Catalina last year, beating Master David. Finished second in the Hollywood Futurity to Lion Heart last year, in first race after breaking his maiden. Second by a nose this year in the San Felipe, after encountering traffic problems with a horse who had lost its rider.

Con: Well beaten in his last race, the Santa Anita Derby. Trainer and jock have never won a Derby. Adjusted Beyer figs have yet to reach the needed level.

Final Analysis: This horse obviously has some talent, but it should have shown itself in the Santa Anita Derby and didn't. He is reported to have serious foot problems, and one handicapper I know has told me that he has no business running in the Derby. One can go broke listening to opinions like that, but this one has some validity to me because of the Santa Anita Derby performance, and because Churchill Downs is notoriously rock hard on Derby day. That, coupled with the fact that this horse has never run an adjusted Beyer that tops the century mark makes him a throw out to me.

Borrego

Pro: Finished closing seconds in both Louisiana and Arkansas Derbies that suggest he could be a threat at mile and a quarter distance. When the wide trip of the Louisiana Derby is factored into his final Beyer number, he's on a nice fig progression that may project to the needed level to win. Jockey (Espinoza) has won a Derby before on War Emblem.

Con: Has not yet won a stakes race. Though he's by El Prado, a noted router on the turf, Tomlinson number doesn't suggest that a mile and a quarter is his distance. Trainer has only won with 2 of 46 entrants this year, and has never won a Derby.

Final Analysis: I think Borrego is an interesting long shot play if you are looking for a horse with potential to jump up and improve in the Derby. His fig progression, taking into account his 8 wide trip in the Louisiana Derby goes something like this: 90, 95, 98, 105 if you use a Beyer figure of 111 for the Arkansas Derby (which arguably, is the correct figure for that race instead of a 107). Another seven point move forward, and he's right there with the big boys. At a minimum, I think this horse has got to be used in the exotics, and he will be a nice price.

Imperialism

Pro: Former claimer from Florida has improved immensely under the care of 21 year old female trainer Kristin Mulhall. Won both the San Vicente and San Rafael stakes at Santa Anita, and then finished a trouble third in Santa Anita Derby.

Con: Even without trouble, would not have likely won Santa Anita Derby and numbers appear to have stablized at the 100 level. (fig. progression is 95, 100, 98 (with trouble)) Trainer has never won a Derby, and Espinoza spun this horse for Borrego. Workout this week at Churchill was nothing to get excited about.

Final Analysis: This horse would make a great success story if he wins: former claimer, almost blind in one eye, female trainer. Even though he's been an overacheiver, he just doesn't seem to have the ability to win this race as Beyers are too low and there's nothing to suggest that he's going to move forward from his last race. At most, he's the back end of a trifecta or superfecta play.

Quinton's Gold Rush

Pro: Won Lexington Stakes last week. Trainer, Steve Asmussen, is talented. Beat Wimbledon by 3 and 1/2 lengths when winning maiden race at Santa Anita in January.

Con: Adjusted Beyers have yet to top the century mark (88, 96, 97). Bailey spun the horse for Wimbledon. Trainer has never won a Derby. Kentucky Derby will be this horse's third race in a month.

Final Analysis: Steve Asmussen hardly has had time to get to know this horse, as he took over for his previous trainer, Mike Mitchell, just before the Lexington Stakes. Asmussen is a good trainer, but he can't make a horse whose Beyers are in the upper nineties run a 112 in the Derby when the horse has run as often as this one has. He's a throw out to me.

Song of the Sword

Pros: Ran a good second to Pollard's Vision in the Illinois Derby while chasing a very slow pace. Ran third in the Lexington Stakes after encountering trouble at the start of the race and in the second turn.

Con: Has yet to win a stakes race. Derby will be the third race in a month. Neither trainer (Jennifer Pederson) nor jockey (Arroyo) have ever won a Derby. Has yet to run an adjusted Beyer fig over the century mark.

Final Analysis: I was very interested in this horse's possibilities going into the Lexington Stakes, as he had put up a nice fig progression of 68.5, 88.5, 93, 98 going into the race. But his Lexington fig was a 92, and probably would have been no more than a 98 without the trouble, which did not indicate the required move forward to be a Derby contender. Like Quinton's Gold Rush, he's not talented enough and he's running too often. Into the toss-out bin he goes.

Pro Prado

Pro: Like Borrego, is on a nice fig progression (84.5, 88.5, 91.5 and 104) that indicates another move forward is possible. Trained by one of the more underrated trainers in the mid-west, Bob Holthus.

Con: Has only won a small stakes race at Oaklawn Park going six furlongs. Like Borrego, he's by El Prado, but Tomlinson numbers do not suggest that a mile and quarter will be to his liking. Trainer and jockey (McKee) have never won a Derby. Recent work at Churchill was nothing to write home about.

Final Analysis: This horse is likeable for all of the same reasons that Borrego is likeable. He's going to be a longshot, and I think it would be foolish to leave him out of any of your exotic plays.

That concludes the analysis of all of the likely entrants. I did nothing on Value Plus (who would bump Pro Prado if he enters) because Pletcher has said that he will only run if Lion Heart and Smarty Jones don't run, and that's not happening. Even if Pletcher changes his mind and runs the horse, he won't win. He's on a fig regresssion of 104, 89, 82.5, and he'll get caught up in a speed duel if he's in the Derby, so there's no reason to believe he's going to miraculously rebound. However, he might make life difficult for Lion Heart if he goes.

If anyone else scratches, Eddington gets in and will likely be a wise guy horse too. I think that will come from the fact that he finished a game third in the Wood and because Bailey will ride him over any other choice he has. However, his adjusted Beyer figs have yet to top the century mark, and are not on any kind of progression to suggest that he's this good. I liked this horse going into the Gotham, but he did not run well there (albeit with trouble), and his race in the Wood, while an improvement, just doesn't show me that he's talented enough to win this. He's another who has never won a stakes race, and I'll be taking a stand against him in the Derby.

Rock Hard Ten would get in with two more scratches. He too has not yet won a stakes, but was beaten a head by Castledale in the Santa Anita Derby in only his third lifetime start. He galloped out past Castledale after the wire in that race, so he's arguably the best of the west coast three year olds. His adjusted Beyer numbers are 98, 95, 101. It's not uncommon for a three year old to make dramatic improvement, but I don't see this one doing it in the Derby after such a light racing schedule.

[madyaks]

Originally posted by tallahassee blues fan@Apr 26 2004, 05:18 AM
Nice job Madyaks.

Derby History
God Bless Google

[tallahassee blues fan]

Entering 130th year, Derby still is unique

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Befitting an authentic piece of Americana, the Kentucky Derby is all things to all people: an adventure in hedonism, a triumph of capitalism, a citadel of traditionalism. There is latitude at Churchill Downs to be as high-class or lowbrow, as reverential or irreverent, as you dare.

Among the overserved at the julep stand, oversexed in the infield and overdrawn at the ATM, tens of thousands in the old joint are magnetized by a race that will turn 130 Saturday. They'll tell you that no other sporting event packs a more concentrated payload of tension, drama and emotion.

That's why the Derby stands unique — so much anticipation and aspiration distilled into such a compact competition.

Nothing else has a higher ratio of dream time to reality. Human beings can spend a lifetime striving for a two-minute burst of sound and fury. In the time it takes to floss, it's over.

And then the whole place, from spires to dirt, sags.

WILLIAM FAULKNER covered the 1955 Derby for Sports Illustrated. John Steinbeck covered the '56 Derby for The Courier-Journal. Both noted the Derby's crescendo effect.

Faulkner described the winner's circle scene: "This is the moment, the peak, the pinnacle; after this, all is ebb. We who watched have seen too much; expectation, the glandular pressure, has been too high to long endure; it is evening, not only of the day but the emotional capacity too ..."

Steinbeck: "By the time this is written, there will be few people in the nation who will not have seen the race on television or heard it on radio, and they will all have felt to some extent the bursting emotion at Churchill Downs. ... (T)he balloon of tension swelled and burst and it was all over.

"Now there is a languor. ... I am fulfilled and weary. This Kentucky Derby, whatever it is — a race, an emotion, a turbulence, an explosion — is one of the most beautiful and violent and satisfying things I have ever experienced."

THE BUILDUP to this year's beautiful violence began three years ago. According to The Jockey Club, 34,539 foals were born in the United States in 2001.

At 6:04 p.m. Saturday, 20 of those 34,539 will enter the starting gate for their only Kentucky Derby. At roughly 6:06, one of them will cross the wire first.

For even the most regally bred, winning is a huge statistical improbability.

The three-year journey from foal to Derby boils down to a four-month campaign as a 3-year-old, itself rife with risk and error. Those talented enough to emerge spend the latter half of April preparing for this very week, Derby Week, when the nation begins taking notice in earnest.

"This is the race," two-time winning trainer Nick Zito said. "We're all nuts to think that way, but we do think that way."

From years to months to weeks — and now we bear down. The final days, leading to the dawdling final hours Saturday, to the post parade and "My Old Kentucky Home." Finally comes the jarring crash of the starting gate opening to human bedlam.

IT'S A two-minute lunge at immortality — no margin for error. And even then, it's often not until the final dozen seconds that the champion emerges and the emotion surges.

That's when old people react with the glee of toddlers. Serious people act like fools. Rich people cavort like commoners.

"It's like when Phil Mickelson made that putt (to win the Masters)," three-time winner Bob Baffert said. "It's that feeling: `I can't believe I actually did it.'

"It's the only race that's very, very emotional — because it's been around so long. It's not about the money, because the purse ($1million) is so dinky. ... It's a dream. To go to the Derby, you have to dream in Technicolor."

Once you arrive, the reward is the most intense two minutes in sports.


You can reach Pat Forde at (502) 582-4373 or [email protected]. Submit questions at courier-journal.com/forde.

[tallahassee blues fan]

Couple of reminders:

1) ESPN is having a contest where, if you pick the official order of finish of the Kentucky Derby, you win $5,000,0000. You've got about the same chance of hitting it as the lottery, except that you don't have to pay $1 for a ticket.

2) ESPN Classic is running several horse stories this week at 7 p.m. central that are very well made. The one on Secretariat tonight is outstanding, as is the one on the Affirmed/Alydar rivalry on Wednesday.