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Home run rating formula

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  • Home run rating formula

    A couple of years ago, I dreamed up a home run rating formula. It still seems right to me, but there is not a lot I can do with it. It would be great---- for some sabremetrician to poop on. I thought of it when McGwire was hittin a lot of home runs, and comments were made that what good were they if the Cardinals lost the games. I thought that was unfair---McGwire would tie a game, or put the birds in the lead, but even back then, the LaDuncan bullpen blew the games a lot of the time. Someone just posted the comment that Rolen hits dingers the Cardinals don't really need. My formula is based on what is the ballgame situation at the moment the player swings the bat and hits a home run. I don't care who wins or loses. So here it is. A small home run is worth 0.5. A medium home run is worth 1.0. A large home run is worth 1.5. With my formula, a player who hits 40 home runs is probably a better slugger than one who hits 25. But not necessarily better than one who hits 35. Here are the definitions. A large home run ties the score, or gives the player's team the lead. Examples: a home run in the first inning with the bases empty to give his team a 1 to 0 lead. A home run in the seventh with one on to tie the game. A home run in the ninth with two on to win the game by a 7 to 6 score. Medium home runs cut a deficit by at least half, or they double an existing lead. Examples: Your team is down by six---you hit a home run with two or three runners aboard. You are down 2 to 0 and hit one with the bases empty. Or you are ahead 4 to 0 and hit a grand slam making it 8 to nothing. Helpful, not crucial. All others are small. You lead 2 to 0, hit one with bases empty. You lead 11 to 2, or trail 11 to 2, it will be a small home run. If the guy with forty home runs hits 4 big ones, 22 mediums and 14 small ones, his home run rating would be 35. If the guy with 35 home runs hits 12 big ones, 19 mediums, and 4 small ones his home run rating would be 39. The batter should try to do what seems to be the best thing for the team at the time he is at bat. If you are down by six, it might be easier to go for the home run, but more helpful over the long haul to get a walk. Sometimes home runs can be rally killers.