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Breeder's Cup 2005 - GDT

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  • Breeder's Cup 2005 - GDT

    This thread is likely to be Hall of Fame material in that it will be the only one to have one poster carrying on a conversation with himself. There are not a lot of intriguing story lines to this one, the biggest being that undefeated three year old sprinter Lost in the Fog seeks to make his case for three year old (and perhaps horse) of the year with a win in the Sprint. (I think he'll lose) I'd like to see Ivan Denisovich win the Juvenile just because I think that's a cool name.

    The entries for horse racing's biggest day or, as it's come be known at NBC, Notre Dame's not playing this weekend:

    Breeders' Cup Classic - Powered by Dodge

    1 Rock Hard Ten, G. Stevens, Richard E. Mandella, 7-2
    2 Sun King, R. Bejarano, Nicholas P. Zito, 30-1
    3 Choctaw Nation, V. Espinoza, Jeff Mullins, 15-1
    4 Oratorio (IRE), K. Fallon, Aidan P. O'Brien, 10-1
    5 Perfect Drift, M. Guidry, Murray W. Johnson, 12-1
    6 Sir Shackleton, J. Castellano, Nicholas P. Zito, 20-1
    7 Super Frolic, E. Coa, Vladimir Cerin, 30-1
    8 Suave, E. Prado, Paul J. McGee, 20-1
    9 Flower Alley, J. Velazquez, Todd A. Pletcher, 10-1
    10 Jack Sullivan, F. Dettori, Gerard A. Butler, 50-1
    11 Borrego, G. Gomez, C. Beau Greely, 9-2
    12 A Bit O'Gold, J. Jones, Catherine Day-Phillips, 30-1
    13 Saint Liam, J. Bailey, Richard E. Dutrow Jr., 3-1
    14 Starcraft (NZ), P. Valenzuela, Luca M. Cumani, 12-1

    John Deere Breeders' Cup Turf

    1 Shake the Bank, T. Turner, H. Graham Motion, 99-1
    2 Shirocco (GER), C. Soumillon, Andre Fabre, 20-1
    3 Bago (FR), T. Gillet, Jonathan Pease, 5-1
    4 Better Talk Now, R. Dominguez, H. Graham Motion, 8-1
    5 Azamour (IRE), M. Kinane, John Mortimer, 7-2
    6 Ace (IRE), K. Fallon, Aidan P. O'Brien, 12-1
    7 Shakespeare, J. Bailey, William I. Mott, 3-1
    8 Silverfoot, R. Bejarano, Dallas Stewart, 30-1
    9 Fourty Niners Son, C. Nakatani Neil, D. Drysdale, 15-1
    10 English Channel, J. Velazquez, Todd A. Pletcher, 10-1
    11 Laura's Lucky Boy, G. Stevens, Richard E. Mandella, 20-1
    12 Leprechaun Kid, G. Gomez, Mike R. Mitchell, 20-1
    13 Gun Salute, C. Velasquez, William I. Mott, 20-1

    Emirates Airline Breeders' Cup Distaff

    1 Society Selection,E. Prado, H. Allen Jerkens, 8-1
    2 Stellar Jayne,F. Dettori, Saeed bin Suroor 5-1
    3 Ashado, J. Velazquez, Todd A. Pletcher, 2-1
    4 Nothing But Fun, A. Solis, Michael E. Hushion, 30-1
    5 Yolanda B. Too, E. Coa, Richard Violette, Jr. 30-1
    6 Healthy Addiction, G. Gomez, John W. Sadler, 10-1
    7 Happy Ticket, V. Espinoza, Andy Leggio, 6-1
    8 Island Fashion, R. Bejarano, Marcelo Polanco, 12-1
    9 Hollywood Story,,P. Valenzuela, John A. Shirreffs, 20-1
    10 In the Gold, G. Stevens, Nicholas P. Zito, 20-1
    11 Pleasant Home, C. Velasquez, Claude R. McGaughey III, 20-1
    12 Sweet Symphony, J. Bailey, William I. Mott, 8-1
    13 Capeside Lady, C. DeCarlo, Todd A. Pletcher 30-1

    NetJets Breeders' Cup Mile
    1 Host (CHI) R. Bejarano Todd A. Pletcher 12-1
    2 Artie Schiller G. Gomez James Jerkens 6-1
    3 Whipper J. Murtagh Robert Collet 12-1
    4 Sand Springs J. Bailey William I. Mott 20-1
    5 Ad Valorem K. Fallon Aidan P. O'Brien 20-1
    6 Funfair (GB) E. Prado H. Graham Motion 12-1
    7 Majors Cast (IRE) F. Dettori Jeremy Noseda 15-1
    8 Gorella (FR) G. Stevens Patrick-Louis Biancone 20-1
    9 Singletary D. Flores Don Chatlos 8-1
    10 Valixir (IRE) C. Soumillon Andre Fabre 10-1
    11 Leroidesanimaux (BRZ) J. Court Robert J. Frankel 7-5
    12 Limehouse J. Santos Todd A. Pletcher 20-1

    TVG Breeders' Cup Sprint

    1 Taste of Paradise G. Gomez Gary Mandella 12-1
    2 Attila's Storm P. Valenzuela Richard E. Schosberg 30-1
    3 Silver Train E. Prado Richard E. Dutrow Jr. 8-1
    4 Battle Won R. Dominguez Charles Simon 10-1
    5 Lion Tamer J. Velazquez Todd A. Pletcher 12-1
    6 Wildcat Heir S. Elliott Benjamin W. Perkins, Jr. 10-1
    7 Lost in the Fog R. Baze Greg Gilchrist Even
    8 Elusive Jazz R. Albarado Bobby C. Barnett 12-1
    9 Lifestyle A. Solis Wesley A. Ward 30-1
    10 Imperialism V. Espinoza Kristin Mulhall 15-1
    11 Gygistar J. Castellano Mark A. Hennig 12-1

    Emirates Airline Breeders' Cup Filly and Mare Turf

    1 Luas Line (IRE) C. Soumillon David R. Wachman 15-1
    2 Film Maker P. Valenzuela H. Graham Motion 12-1
    3 Sundrop (JPN) F. Dettori Saeed bin Suroor 30-1
    4 Riskaverse J. Santos Patrick J. Kelly 15-1
    5 Wend J. Velazquez William I. Mott 10-1
    6 Flip Flop (FR) G. Gomez Ben D. A. Cecil 20-1
    7 Wonder Again E. Prado James J. Toner 8-1
    8 Megahertz (GB) A. Solis Robert J. Frankel 5-1
    9 Favourable Terms (GB) M. Kinane Sir Michael R.Stoute 20-1
    10 Intercontinental (GB) R. Bejarano Robert J. Frankel 8-1
    11 Mona Lisa (GB) K. Fallon Aidan P. O'Brien 15-1
    12 Karen's Caper R. Albarado John H. M. Gosden 15-1
    13 Ouija Board (GB) J. Bailey Edward Dunlop 5-2
    14 Angara (GB) G. Stevens Patrick-Louis Biancone 20-1

    Bessemer Trust Breeders' Cup Juvenile

    1 Superfly E. Coa Nicholas P. Zito 30-1
    2 Ivan Denisovich (IRE) K. Fallon Aidan P. O'Brien 12-1
    3 Leo (GB) F. Dettori John H. M. Gosden 20-1
    4 Set AlightR. Bejarano Christiane Head-Maarek 20-1
    5 Jealous ProfitC. Nakatani Doug O'Neill 50-1
    6 Dawn of War J. Castellano Dale L. Romans 20-1
    7 Stream Cat G. Stevens Patrick-Louis Biancone 30-1
    8 Sorcerer's Stone M. Guidry Patrick B. Byrne 12-1
    9 First Samurai J. Bailey Frank L. Brothers 8-5
    10 Henny Hughes E. Prado Kiaran P. McLaughlin 5-1
    11 Private Vow J. Velazquez Steven M. Asmussen 8-1
    12 Stevie Wonderboy G. Gomez Doug O'Neill 8-1
    13 Brother Derek A. Solis Dan Hendricks 20-1
    14 Dr. Pleasure J. Santos John Ward 20-1

    Alberto VO5 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies

    1 Folklore E. Prado D. Wayne Lukas 5-2
    2 Original Spin J. Bailey Anthony Mitchell 6-1
    3 Along the Sea J. Castellano Ralph Ziadie 20-1
    4 Diamond Omi V. Espinoza Bob Baffert 12-1
    5 Knights Templar G. Stevens Daniel J. Vella 12-1
    6 Adieu J. Velazquez Todd A. Pletcher 3-1
    7 Sensation E. Coa Stanley M. Hough 8-1
    8 She Says It Best E. Martin Jr. Vickie L. Foley 15-1
    9 Ex Caelis R. Bejarano D. Wayne Lukas 15-1
    10 Wild Fit A. Solis Jeff Mullins 6-1
    June 9, 1973 - The day athletic perfection was defined.

  • #2
    Okay folks, slow down a bit. We're overloading the system with replies to this thread.

    Andy Beyer's selections:
    Looking for a Margin to Make a Profit

    By Andrew Beyer
    Friday, October 28, 2005; E12

    The Breeders' Cup races are traditionally contentious and difficult to decipher. But on tomorrow's card at Belmont Park, almost every event has a clear-cut favorite. In wagering at European and offshore venues, as many as six of the eight favorites are listed at odds of 2 to 1 or less.

    Deciding what to do with these favorites is a crucial task for handicappers -- particularly for those playing the Pick Six, or various Pick Fours and Pick Threes. If you think Lost in the Fog is vulnerable in the Sprint, and you use half a dozen contenders on your ticket, you might make a big score by beating the favorite. But if you're wrong, you've squandered most of your stake.

    I don't have any long-priced mortal locks on this card. But if I am right about which favorites are vulnerable and which are not, I can make tomorrow a very profitable day.

    Juvenile Fillies

    In a rare race without a clear favorite, Adieu and Folklore are considered the leading contenders. Adieu has accomplished all of her victories in slow time, while Folklore's 14-length romp in the Matron Stakes at Belmont was a blockbuster. Sensation, 8 to 1 in the morning line, is the only other filly with good speed figures, and she could complete the exacta with Folklore.


    First Samurai has looked brilliant winning all four of his starts, but I don't fully trust him. The colt has scored his major victories after pressing a hot pace and decelerating sharply in the stretch; he crawled the last furlong of the Hopeful Stakes in 14 seconds. If he runs the same way in the Juvenile, the race could set up for a come-from-behind runner. Stevie Wonderboy was visually impressive rallying to win in California, but he beat weak competition in slow time. Sorcerer's Stone appears to have class, a finishing kick and a future in next year's classics. He won a stakes at Arlington Park by pressing the pace and accelerating the final furlong in 12 seconds flat.

    Filly and Mare Turf

    Ouija Board, who won this race as the odds-on choice last year, is again the favorite in the event that starts the Pick Six. But this time she is an absurd favorite. Beset by problems, she has made only two starts in 2005. In one, she was virtually eased; in the other, last month, she beat a field devoid of stakes horses. There is no evidence that she is close to her 2004 form. My tepid preference in this race is Wend, but she is an uncertain proposition on soft turf -- a crucial factor in all of the grass races. Three veteran New York campaigners -- Film Maker, WonderAgain and Riskaverse -- possess solid form and the ability to handle the going. This is a spot to use several contenders in exotic wagers while taking a stand against Ouija Board. If she wins, my day is ruined.


    Every wise guy has been waiting to bet against Lost in the Fog, who has been overhyped after compiling a 10-for-10 record against patsies. But this field is one of the weakest ever assembled for the Sprint; it doesn't appear to contain any ultra-fast speedsters capable of applying early pressure to Lost in the Fog. Iconoclasts who still hope to beat Lost in the Fog might look to Wildcat Heir, who beat a strong field in the De Francis Dash at Laurel last fall and won his only start this year impressively. But it would be folly to take a bold stand against the favorite.


    Leroidesanimaux has won eight grass races in a row, impressively. Not only is he the most accomplished horse in the field, but his speed gives him a tactical advantage in a field with few front-runners. There is only one reason for uncertainty about him: He is untested on soft turf.


    Ashado won this race last year, earning an Eclipse Award, and has gone on to be America's second-leading female money-earner of all time. She also is one of the luckiest of all time. In race after race, she has benefited from easy trips to win without running fast. After narrowly winning the Beldame Stakes by controlling a slow early pace, she is about to run out of luck.

    The Distaff is filled with other speedsters who will compromise her chances. I am looking for Ashado to finish out of the trifecta, and I am going to concentrate my play on horses who can come from off the pace -- Society Selection, Sweet Symphony and Happy Ticket.


    Historically, European horses have fared well at Belmont, where the climate and the sweeping contour of the track are usually to their liking. This year's invaders -- Azamour, Bago and Shirocco -- have records that deserve respect. But well-regarded Europeans have disappointed in the major North American races this fall, and the home team can prevail in the Turf. Trainer Bill Mott's Shakespeare comes into the race undefeated, but I am taking a shot with his 20-to-1 stablemate, Gun Salute, who won impressively on soft turf at Arlington Park this summer.


    The three leading contenders all have flaws. Saint Liam is the favorite and the most talented horse in the field, but he failed in his only previous attempt at the Classic's 1 1/4 -mile distance. Rock Hard Ten is an overrated colt, with speed figures no better than some of the longshots in this field. Borrego has been a disappointing plodder for most of his career. But Borrego's win in the Jockey Club Gold Cup at Belmont four weeks ago was eye-catching; he has found a racetrack that is kind to his come-from-far-behind style. He's the one to beat, but if I'm alive this far in the Pick Six, I hope to have a lot of other horses on my ticket.

    © 2005 The Washington Post Company
    June 9, 1973 - The day athletic perfection was defined.


    • #3
      Rock Hard Ten dropped out today.
      Official Sponsor of the National League Three-Peat.


      • #4
        QUOTE(CSD @ Oct 28 2005, 03:23 PM) Quoted post

        Rock Hard Ten dropped out today.
        you bastard!! there go his hopes of this being HOF material [img]style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/dry.gif[/img]


        • #5
          [img]style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/laugh.gif[/img] Which is funnier, CSD saying "Rock Hard Ten" or Ms. Funkay decrying the spoliation of my HOF possibilities?
          June 9, 1973 - The day athletic perfection was defined.


          • #6
            Box all the horses. Trust me. Works every time.
            "There are only two ways to live your life. One is as though nothing is a miracle. The other is as though everything is a miracle."
            --Albert Einstein


            • #7
              QUOTE(tallahassee blues fan @ Oct 28 2005, 04:33 PM) Quoted post

              [img]style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/laugh.gif[/img] Which is funnier, CSD saying "Rock Hard Ten" or Ms. Funkay decrying the spoliation of my HOF possibilities?
              nothing beats "rock hard ten"

              i just had to call CSD bastard since i hadn't in a while [img]style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/wink.gif[/img]


              • #8
                QUOTE(kennyboyerfan @ Oct 28 2005, 04:59 PM) Quoted post

                Box all the horses. Trust me. Works every time.

                Or do like those guys did two or three years ago and hack into a computer and past post your pick six ticket.
                June 9, 1973 - The day athletic perfection was defined.



                • #9
                  Best handicapper in the country and close friend's picks:

                  Randy Moss: Breeders' Cup picks

                  Alberto VO5 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies

                  Adieu has a sterling record, but she could be vulnerable; she has yet to run as fast as it usually takes to win the Juvenile Fillies. A solid case can be made for Folklore, Original Spin, Wild Fit, Diamond Omi, Sensation and possibly even Knights Templar.
                  1. Folklore
                  2. Original Spin
                  3. Adieu
                  4. Wild Fit

                  Bessemer Trust Breeders' Cup Juvenile

                  Yes, First Samurai has been faltering in the late stages of his races, but after running a half-mile in :43-and-change and six furlongs in 1:08-and-change, a strong finish would put him in Ghostzapper's league. At a one-turn mile-and-a-sixteenth, he should again be tough to beat. However, First Samurai should get heat from Sorcerer's Stone, who probably is a little better than his last figure indicates, and from old nemesis Henny Hughes. The Eastern-based colts appear a cut above those from the West Coast, but that's what we thought before the Kentucky Derby, too.

                  1. First Samurai
                  2. Sorceror's Stone
                  3. Henny Hughes
                  4. Stevie Wonderboy

                  Emirates Airline Breeders' Cup Filly and Mare Turf

                  Defending champion Ouija Board is vulnerable on numerous counts, including her No. 13 post position. On the other hand, Wonder Again should get the soft turf she relishes, she loves Belmont Park in general, and she was beaten less than two lengths by Ouija Board last year after a much more challenging trip.

                  1. Wonder Again
                  2. Film Maker
                  3. Karen's Caper
                  4. Ouija Board

                  TVG Breeders' Cup Sprint

                  Lost in the Fog is the best sprinter in the country, and deserves an Eclipse Award win or lose. But that doesn't mean he HAS to win this race; he struggled more at Belmont Park than over any other surface this year. He'll probably get the money again, but given his likely 3-to-5 odds, you may want to use Wildcat Heir and Taste of Paradise in the Pick Four in a race many others will "single."

                  1. Lost in the Fog
                  2. Wildcat Heir
                  3. Taste of Paradise
                  4. Imperialism

                  NetJets Breeders Cup Mile

                  Leroidesanimaux is clearly the horse to beat, but faces what will probably be much more taxing course conditions that he saw in Canada. Artie Schiller should be stalking from the outset, and might be able to battle past him in the lane. Singletary comes off an impressive prep victory, and Valixir beat Rakti and Starcraft in England.

                  1. Artie Schiller
                  2. Leroidesanimaux
                  3. Singletary
                  4. Valixir

                  Emirates Airline Breeders' Cup Distaff

                  Ashado had a perfect trip in the Beldame, and still barely held off the surging Happy Ticket. It is unlikely that Ashado will see that scenario in the Distaff, so win machine Happy Ticket may be able to turn the tables. Legendary trainer Allen Jerkens should have Society Selection ready to roll, and a review of the '04 Distaff will show that Stellar Jayne might have been the best horse a year ago.

                  1. Happy Ticket
                  2. Ashado
                  3. Society Selection
                  4. Stellar Jayne

                  John Deere Breeders' Cup Turf

                  Shakespeare appears vulnerable on soft turf, but Better Talk Now won a year ago under similar conditions yet might be as high as 8-to-1 here. Gun Salute and Shirocco have also both showed a liking for wet turf conditions, and the Europeans in general typically do well at Belmont Park, especially if the course has been softened by rain.

                  1. Better Talk Now
                  2. Gun Salute
                  3. Shirocco
                  4. Bago

                  Breeders' Cup Classic Powered by Dodge

                  Borrego earned a 110 Beyer Speed figure in the Jockey Club Gold Cup while being literally geared down in the final sixteenth-mile. The number could easily have been 115 or 116, which puts him right in Saint Liam territory. Rock Hard Ten, by contrast, has never run that fast, had an ideal stalk-in-slow-fractions trip in the Goodwood, and has been battling a foot bruise. Perfect Drift could contend in the trifecta with his usual big-race effort. Choctaw Nation is never too far out of the mix, either, and may benefit as much from the more honest Eastern racing surfaces as Borrego has.

                  1. Borrego
                  2. Saint Liam
                  3. Perfect Drift
                  4. Choctaw Nation
                  June 9, 1973 - The day athletic perfection was defined.



                  • #10
                    Thanks TBF,

                    IMO, the Breeder's Cup is the best day in racing. The Kentucky Derby gets most of the attention, but the BC is so much better.
                    Make America Great For Once.


                    • #11
                      QUOTE(The Kev @ Oct 28 2005, 06:00 PM) Quoted post

                      Thanks TBF,

                      IMO, the Breeder's Cup is the best day in racing. The Kentucky Derby gets most of the attention, but the BC is so much better.

                      I agree Kev.
                      June 9, 1973 - The day athletic perfection was defined.



                      • #12
                        He's not as good as Beyer or Moss, but he's not bad either:

                        Crist's Breeders' Cup Diary: Friday, October 28
                        By STEVEN CRIST
                        So here's the three-day diary deal: early Pick Four races today, late Pick Four races tomorrow morning, and a recap of what went wrong sometime Sunday.
                        We'll go horse by horse in post position order, listing positives and negatives on each entrant. "Fair odds" means the price necessary to match my opinion of each horse's actual chance of winning a race: If I believe a horse has a 10 percent chance, fair odds are 9-1. "Fair odds" are usually higher than ML prices because they are not reduced by takeout - the idea is to make a profit, not just beat the vigorish.

                        At the end of each race I list the selections that appear in Saturday's DRF, which I made Wednesday night, followed by any further thoughts or changes of hearts I have had about the race.

                        Let's get started:

                        BREEDERS' CUP JUVENILE FILLIES

                        Race overview: New York rivals Folklore and Adieu, 1-2 choices on morning line, meet for fourth time, joined by winners of the Alcibiades, Arlington Lassie, Astarita, Mazarine and Oak Leaf.

                        1. Folklore
                        ML Odds: 5-2
                        Fair Odds: 3-1

                        Positives: 14-length last-out romp in G1 Matron earned Beyer figure of 99, tops in field; final time of 1:23.70 was 0.25 faster than colt Private Vow ran winning G2 Futurity Stakes half-hour later; has four races over Belmont track and has won twice from today's rail post.

                        Negatives: Matron margin enhanced by non-effort of 11-10 favorite India, who broke through gate, rushed up rail, and was done before a half-mile; lost two of three meetings with Adieu and latter had excuse (bottled-up rail trip) the one time Folklore beat her; rail draw here tricker at 1 1/16 miles than in sprints; has not been beyond seven furlongs; comes into this off 42-day layoff.

                        2. Original Spin
                        ML Odds: 6-1
                        Fair Odds: 9-1

                        Positives: Unbeaten in two starts including 4 1/4-length Arlington Lassie score over Ex Caelis, who returned to run a closer second in the Alcibiades; earned respectable Beyer of 86 that day; improved when stretched to mile for second start, rated behind quick pace and finished decently; picks up Jerry Bailey, who praised her tractability and strong finish in her final workout.

                        Negatives: Lacks seasoning of two favorites; Lassie time of 1:35.93 was slower than Sorceror's Stone's Arlington Futurity (1:35.16) on same card, and she benefited by closing into faster fractions than in the colt race (1:09.91 vs. 1:11.02).

                        3. Along the Sea
                        ML Odds: 20-1
                        Fair Odds: 30-1

                        Positives: Never worse than third in four career starts; placed in three graded stakes; final workout impressed clockers.

                        Negatives: Been beaten twice by Folklore and twice by Adieu without compensating excuses; needs to improve off top Beyer of 78.

                        4. Diamond Omi
                        ML Odds: 12-1
                        Fair Odds: 20-1

                        Positives: Has improved in each of four starts and is two for two since being stretched out in distance; beat 1-to-2 Wild Fit winning Oak Leaf.

                        Negatives: Wild Fit may not have fired her best shot in Oak Leaf that earned mediocre Beyer of 79; finishing times of 26.51 for final quarter in one-mile maiden victory and 33.54 for final five-sixteenths of Oak Leaf are moderate at best. Ran 1 1/16 miles of Oak Leaf in 1:45.57 half an hour before Rock Hard Ten needed only 1:48.68 in Goodwood triumph.

                        5. Knights Templar
                        ML Odds: 12-1
                        Fair Odds: 12-1

                        Positives: Won Mazarine at Woodbine by 13 1/4 lengths in first dirt start beyond six furlongs; earned Beyer of 93 that day, third best in this field; ran 1 1/16 miles of Mazarine in 1:43.15 while other races on card at that distance went in 1:44.32 (older male $12k claimers), 1:45.57 (3-year-old filly $40k claimers) and 1:48.36 (older-filly maiden claimers).

                        Negatives: Got loose early in Mazarine but figures to face immediate early pressure here from She Says it Best to her outside; takes a huge class jump from Canadian G3 company to U.S. G1 stakes.

                        6. Adieu
                        ML Odds: 3-1
                        Fair Odds: 5-1

                        Positives: Has won four of five starts and is field's lone multiple graded-stakes winner; has won two of three prior meeting with ML favorite Folklore and had excuse in lone defeat; won G1 Frizette from tricky rail post in determined effort.

                        Negatives: Top Beyer of 83 is well below others in here; pedigree (by first-crop El Corredor) not necessarily conducive to stretching out in distance.

                        7. Sensation
                        ML Odds: 8-1
                        Fair Odds: 5-1

                        Positives: Has won three of four starts including 5 1/2-length G3 Astarita romp last out; earned Beyers of 98 in that race and 93 in debut, second only to Folklore's Matron and making her the lone entrant with two 90+ figs; rated kindly when yanked back to last in Saratoga allowance race, splitting rivals under a hand ride for a slow but authoritative victory.

                        Negatives: Hasn't been beyond seven furlongs and pedigree (Dixie Union from a Mr. Prospector mare) may be sprint-oriented.

                        8. She Says It Best
                        ML Odds: 15-1
                        Fair Odds: 25-1

                        Positives: Has won 4 of 6 career starts and took G2 Alcibiades last time in her first route start.

                        Negatives: Headstrong runner appears to need the lead; Alcibiades triumph in pokey 1:49.07 ( full second slower than $7500 older claimers earlier on card) came over very slow but possibly speed-favoring Keeneland track.

                        9. Ex Caelis
                        ML Odds: 15-1
                        Fair Odds: 30-1

                        Positives: Arlington Lassie and Alcibiades runner-up slowly improving with each start.

                        Negatives: Was outfinished and lost ground late in her two stakes start; top Beyer of 78 won't get the money here.

                        10. Wild Fit
                        ML Odds: 6-1
                        Fair Odds: 8-1

                        Positives: Earned solid Beyers of 88 and 84 winning her debut and then the G1 Del Mar Debutante, storming from far back both times; was competitive finishing a close second to Diamond Omi stretching to two turns in the Oak Leeaf, turns back to one-turn route here, perhaps a better fit for her one-run style.

                        Negatives: Figures have declined in each of her three starts; had no real excuse losing Oak Leaf as 1-2 favorite.

                        Published picks: Sensation, Folklore, Adieu

                        Second thoughts: Wild Fit, drawn nicely on the outside and perhaps better around one turn, probably belongs in the mix, especially if she creeps higher than her 6-1 ML price, a distinct possibility.

                        BREEDERS' CUP JUVENILE

                        1. Superfly
                        ML Odds: 30-1
                        Fair Odds: 30-1

                        Positives: Earned a strong Beyer of 97 running to since-unseen brilliant debut winner Discreet Cat; won one-mile minor stakes at Delaware when stretched to route; full-brother to Belmont Stakes runner-up Andromeda's Hero may improve with more racing and distance.

                        Negatives: Beaten 12 1/2 lengths by First Samurai over sloppy track in Champagne; no confirmation yet that Discreet Cat's race was as good as it looked on the Teletimer; Kid Lemonade, runner-up in Delaware stakes victory, returned to finish 10th in Breeders' Futurity.

                        2. Ivan Denisovitch
                        ML Odds: 12-1
                        Fair Odds: 30-1

                        Positives: European won G2 July Stakes, second in G1 Prix Morny; dam is Hollywood Wildcat, champion 3-year-old filly of 1993 who won BC Distaff that year, suggesting dirt potential.

                        Negatives: Has not been beyond six furlongs in five Euro starts, and has yet to race on dirt.

                        3. Leo
                        ML Odds: 20-1
                        Fair Odds: 30-1

                        Positives: British colt won G2 Royal Lodge stakes on turf last time out.

                        Negatives: Appears to have a purely grass-oriented pedigree and has won only 2 of 6 overall.

                        4. Set Alight
                        ML Odds: 20-1
                        Fair Odds:

                        Positives: Kentucky-bred returns home after six starts in France, including G3 victory in last; has precocious and dirt-friendly pedigree, being by Hennessy from a Mr. Prospector mare.

                        Negatives: Quality unclear as he has not tried top G1 or G2 European juveniles; led or dueled in all three victories and probably meets much sharper American early-speed here.

                        5. Jealous Profit
                        ML Odds: 50-1
                        Fair Odds: 50-1

                        Positives: Passed horses late to be up for third in both Del Mar Futurity and Norfolk.

                        Negatives: Still a maiden after three starts; lost ground behind winner despite passing faders in both stakes starts; Lucky Chief, winner of big-figure race in which Jealous Profit ran second in debut and was subsequently privately purchased, has come back to be well beaten in two starts since.

                        6. Dawn of War
                        ML Odds: 20-1
                        Fair Odds: 30-1

                        Positives: Won G1 Breeders' Futurity in 36-1 shocker last out, earning respectable Beyer of 87, best in field at today's 1 1/16-mile distance.

                        Negatives: Got loose on the lead in Breeders' Futurity, which attracted a barely G3-quality field this year; figures to face intense early pressure from quicker Henny Hughes and stalking First Samurai here.

                        7. Stream Cat
                        ML Odds: 12-1
                        Fair Odds: 30-1

                        Positives: Made up 11 lengths winning Kentucky Cup Juvenile from last to first and passed eight horses getting up for third to Dawn of War in Breeders' Futurity.

                        Negatives: Earned very weak Beyers of 75 and 76 in those two races, suggesting he'll need either a race meltdown or drastic improvement to be competitive here.

                        8. Sorceror's Stone
                        ML Odds: 12-1
                        Fair Odds: 8-1

                        Positives: Unbeaten colt edged Private Vow in career debut, then won two stakes at Arlington including 8 1/2-length runaway in Arlington-Washington Futurity with excellent final quarter in 24.14, earning good Beyer of 93.

                        Negatives: Strong finish in last aided by attending very moderate pace; skipped final round of preps, so comes into this off six-week layoff.

                        9. First Samurai
                        ML Odds: 8-5
                        Fair Odds: 2-1

                        Positives: Undefeated division leader already dual G1 winner, taking Hopeful and Champagne, beating early-season leader Henny Hughes in both and earning strong Beyers of 96 and 101; appears to have outgrown earlier habit of lugging in late in races, and has been able to rate slightly off pace.

                        Negatives: Slow come-home times in Hopeful (14.00) and Champagne (about 27.45) can probably be excused by his having had to stalk quick paces in both but do raise questions about staying power.

                        10. Henny Hughes
                        ML Odds: 5-1
                        Fair Odds: 10-1

                        Positives: Brilliant sprinter earned field-best Beyer of 105 winning 6f Saratoga Special; has three victories and two seconds to First Samurai in five career starts.

                        Negatives: No reason to think he should turn tables on favorite; mercurial owners, who paid a wild $4.3 million for colt after his first two starts, fired trainer and jockey after Champagne defeat; may well prove to be a very expensive pure sprinter.

                        11. Private Vow
                        ML Odds: 8-1
                        Fair Odds: 10-1

                        Positives: Has won three straight since narrow and toubled near-miss vs. Sorceror's Stone in career debut, capped by nine-length blowout in G2 Futurity Stakes; son of an Unbridled stallion and a Deputy Minister mare is bred to stretch out.

                        Negatives: Ran slower than the filly Folklore winning Futurity against subpar field; has yet to race beyond seven furlongs; ducked Hopeful for allowance race at Saratoga and withheld from Champagne, so comes into this off a six-week layoff.

                        12. Stevie Wonderboy
                        ML Odds: 8-1
                        Fair Odds: 10-1

                        Positives: After twice losing to What a Song, the precocious early-season leader who later died, has won his last two by daylight including rallying from ninth place to win the Del Mar Futurity by five lengths. Outside post and one-turn route here may fit his style nicely.

                        Negatives: Not much behind him in his two victories; has not raced since Sept. 7, a longer layoff than any Juvenile winner has had before the race.

                        13. Brother Derek
                        ML Odds: 20-1
                        Fair Odds: 30-1

                        Positives: Won the Norfolk on the lead in his first route while running somewhat awkwardly; may be more versatile than that front-running score, as he won his May debut from far back.

                        Negatives: Victory in moderate Norfolk field came at expense of A. P. Warrior, 6th in Del Mar Futurity, and maiden Jealous Profit; needs to take big step forward off winning Beyer of 81.

                        14. Dr. Pleasure
                        ML Odds: 20-1
                        Fair Odds: 20-1

                        Positives: Son of champions Thunder Gulch and Beautiful Pleasure won good-looking Saratoga debut by 7 1/4 over next-out winner Regent Spirit; moved straight to stakes company running erratic second in Cowdin behind loose, fast sprinter He's Got Grit; figures to improve with experience and distance.

                        Negatives: Most inexperienced colt in field with just two starts; stretches out quickly from 6 1/2 to 8 1/2 furlongs; ran greenly in five-horse field last out.

                        Published picks: First Samurai, Dr. Pleasure, Sorceror's Stone

                        Second thoughts: Stevie Wonderboy, despite the layoff, wowed morning clockers this week, could be dangerous and bears inclusion at 8-1.

                        BREEDERS' CUP FILLY & MARE TURF

                        Race overview: Ouija Board, who beat a remarkably similar field as a heavy favorite last year, defends her title off a brief and spotty campaign. Her opponents look closely matched and many have made a career of taking turns beating one another.

                        1. Luas Line
                        ML Odds: 15-1
                        Fair Odds: 30-1

                        Positives: Irish 3-year-old filly earned an extraordinary Beyer of 108 winning the G1 Garden City two starts back.

                        Negatives: Has made seven starts and three trans-Atlantic trips since May and appears to be tailing off; no excuse fading late in QEII Cup last out; has never faced older quality older fillies; questionable at 10 furlongs.

                        2. Film Maker
                        ML Odds: 12-1
                        Fair Odds: 10-1

                        Positives: Second to Ouija Board in this race last year; perhaps at her best going 10 furlongs.

                        Negatives: Just two victories from her last 11 starts and a pattern of close-but-no-cigar finishes; has been beaten by Wonder Again (twice), Angara and Wend this year.

                        3. Sundrop
                        ML Odds: 30-1
                        Fair Odds: 50-1

                        Positives: Ran in spots in both American starts as if she could improve here.

                        Negatives: Finished fifth, beaten 3 1/2 lengthsm in both the Beverly D and Flower Bowl, beaten by many of her rivals here. Tired and lugged in late after mild middle-move in Flower Bowl; one of the few in here who just looks a notch below the rest.

                        4. Riskaverse
                        ML Odds: 15-1
                        Fair Odds: 10-1

                        Positives: Won G1 Flower Bowl this course and distance both last year and this year; kept in training at 6 specifically for this race and has rounded into peak form at right time.

                        Negatives: Has never put winning efforts back to back; sometimes rank early; enjoyed dream trip and perfect ride in narrow Flower Bowl score.

                        5. Wend
                        ML Odds: 10-1
                        Fair Odds: 9-1

                        Positives: Making just her ninth career start, still has upside and room to improve unlike many of these veterans; has won 5 of 7 career grass starts; was outstanding beating Wonder Again and Film Maker coming from last behind very slow pace in New York Handicap; had a good-looking final prep with a fast-closing second going shorter in the WinStar Galaxy.

                        Negatives: Sixth-place finish in Beverly D in lone G1 appearance; that relatively poor effort also was her only start on less than firm turf, which may be the course condition Saturday.

                        6. Flip Flop
                        ML Odds: 20-1
                        Fair Odds: 40-1

                        Positives: Beaten only a length by Megahertz in Yellow Robbin last out, her best race yet.

                        Negatives: Raced well below this level in Europe and has never won at the graded-stakes level; Megahertz was toying with her and someone had to be second in the Yellow Ribbon; could be rounding to form but needs to improve.

                        7. Wonder Again
                        ML Odds: 8-1
                        Fair Odds: 9-1

                        Positives: Consistent at this level and distance; best races have come on soft and yielding courses.

                        Negatives: has lost six straight and 8 f her last 10, including photos to Wend and Riskaverse this year.

                        8. Megahertz
                        ML Odds: 5-1
                        Fair Odds: 9-1

                        Positives: Her 14 career victories, which include 11 G1 or G2 stakes in this country, are the most of any horse on the card; has won her last four 10-furlong races.

                        Negatives: Has yet to win in this country outside of Southern California, where she has generally faced suspect opposition; finished off the board in this race the last two years.

                        9. Favourable Terms
                        ML Odds: 20-1
                        Fair Odds: 40-1

                        Positives: Could be set for best in third start of the year; has never raced outside Britain, might improve here; won lone 10-furlong start.

                        Negatives: Has failed against top-class Europeans; comes into this off dreadful effort finishing 8th by 23+ lengths in Sun Chariot Stakes.

                        10. Intercontinental
                        ML Odds: 8-1
                        Fair Odds: 20-1

                        Positives: Has won 8 of 12 American starts including seven graded stakes; one of the few front-runners in a fairly paceless field.

                        Negatives: Her best distance is a mile and she has never been as far as today's 10f; difficult-to-ride filly often rank and temperamental and loses regular jockey Bailey to Ouija Board here.

                        11. Mona Lisa
                        ML Odds: 15-1
                        Fair Odds: 50-1

                        Positives: Comes off career-best effort running close 2nd in French G1.

                        Negatives: Sports abysmal 1-for-14 career record; finished bad 7th in both the Beverly D and Irish Champion this summer.

                        12. Karen's Caper
                        ML Odds: 15-1
                        Fair Odds: 25-1

                        Positives: Was probably best when lost head-bob at finish of QEII Cup in American debut; kept top company in Europe this year, facing Attraction, Soviet Song, Alexander Goldrun; possibly better than QEII Cup Beyer of 96 would suggest, given that slow pace adversely influenced final-time figure. (Two allowance races on card had 47 and change opening half-miles; stakes went in 50.84.)

                        Negatives: Has won just 2 of 8 starts; untested going this far.

                        13. Ouija Board
                        ML Odds: 5-2
                        Fair Odds: 3-1

                        Positives: Won this race almost disdainfully last year against much of the same principal opposition., capping a powerhouse season that also included victories in the English and Irih Oaks and an excellent third to older males in the Arc. At her best, she is one of the best grass fillies worldwide in the last decade.

                        Negatives: Has fought three different physical setbacks this year, leading to a campaign as spotty as last year's was sublime. In two starts since her '04 F&M triumph, she was beaten nearly 30 lengths in June and then won a very weak G3 race in September that proved little.

                        14. Angara
                        ML Odds: 20-1
                        Fair Odds: 25-1

                        Positives: Beat several of these winning the Beverly D this summer when she was in top form; she may be slightly better on soft turf.

                        Negatives: She seems to have gone the wrong way since the Beverly D, fading to finish a bad fifth against males in the Man o'War and a worse 9th in the Flower Bowl.

                        Published picks: Wend, Wonder Again, Ouija Board

                        Second thoughts: Karen's Caper, whom I initially dismissed out of hand for being a 3-year-old and for her low lone Beyer, may be more interesting than that and is worth consideration at a big price.

                        BREEDERS' CUP SPRINT

                        Race overview: Lost in the Fog, the popular 3-year-old who is unbeaten in 10 career starts, meets quality older horses for the first time but it's a ragtag group of elders who for the most part are running at shorter than their preferred distances or battling physical problems. Can a couple of longshot speedballs soften up the heavy favorite for a cavalry charge at the wire?

                        1. Taste of Paradise
                        ML Odds: 12-1
                        Fair Odds: 7-1

                        Positives: Comes off a rousing 26-1 Vosburgh triumph over the Belmont track at the Sprint distance. One-run closer may have turned into a different horse outside of Southern California over a more finisher-friendly surface.

                        Negatives: Sports a career record of just 6 for 27; got a perfect setup in the Vosburgh as a fast pace collapsed in front of him and he enjoyed clear sailing; rail draw here means he'll need to work out a trip.

                        2. Attila's Storm
                        ML Odds: 30-1
                        Fair Odds: 50-1

                        Positives: Still room for improvement in just eighth career start; turned into a new horse after a long summer freshening, returning with a career-best performance in a Momouth allowance race in early Septemeber.

                        Negatives: Has never contested a graded stakes race, won anything more than an allowance race, or faced horses of remotely the quality he meets here.

                        3. Silver Train
                        ML Odds: 8-1
                        Fair Odds: 15-1

                        Positives: Comes off a career-best 110 Beyer winning the Jerome Handicap by five lengths Sept. 11. Has thrived and improved rapidly since joining the Rick Dutrow barn this spring.

                        Negatives: Jerome was at a mile and Silver Train is only 2 for 8 in sprints.

                        4. Battle Won
                        ML Odds: 10-1
                        Fair Odds: 15-1

                        Positives: Reeled off four straight strong sprint this spring and summer in the 106-108 Beyer range, including a dominating 16-1 upset in the Churchill Downs Handicap on the Derby undercard. Prepped for this in a grass sprint, the same pattern that preceded his big Churchill effort.

                        Negatives: His best race is still a bit behind many of these and he is 0 for 7 outside of Kentucky and Louisiana.

                        5. Lion Tamer
                        ML Odds: 12-1
                        Fair Odds: 12-1

                        Positives: 5-year-old returned from four-month freshening with fast-closing third in Vosburgh; won some quality sprints earlier in career and posted a career-best 111 Beyer winning the Cigar Mile last fall.

                        Negatives: Probably better at 7f than 6f and needs a strong pace up front to be effective.

                        6. Wildcat Heir
                        ML Odds: 10-1
                        Fair Odds: 12-1

                        Positives: Concluded his 2004 campaign winning the G1 DeFrancis, and comes into this off a field-best 117 Beyer in the Teddy Drone at Monmouth Aug. 7. Has six victories and four seconds in 11 career starts.

                        Negatives: Has raced just once in the last 11 months due to physical problems that kept him from having a final prep.

                        7. Lost in the Fog
                        ML Odds: 1-1
                        Fair Odds: 2-1

                        Positives: 10 for 10 by a combined 66 1/2 lengths over eight different racetracks. Two of his last three Beyers are a 114 and a 116, better than anything in here except Wildcat Heir's Teedy Drone.

                        Negatives: Seven of his eight starts this year were in races restricted to 3-year-olds. He technically met older horses in his final prep, a virtual exhibition race where he was 1-20 against four victims rounded up for him. His two big Beyers have come in races where he set very soft fractions on his own - the Carry Back, where he went slower early than Madcap Escapade and Woke Up Dreamin did on the same card, and his final prep, where he went a first quarter in 22.42 over a Bay Meadows tracks where 2-year-old maidens went 21.72.

                        8. Elusive Jazz
                        ML Odds: 12-1
                        Fair Odds: 15-1

                        Positives:Comes into this off a career-best performance in the Phoenix at Keeneland, where he stalked early and drew off late by three, earning a 110 Beyer.

                        Negatives: The Phoenix was his first start in a graded stakes and drew a weak group for a G3.

                        9. Lifestyle
                        ML Odds: 30-1
                        Fair Odds: 100-1

                        Positives: Began his career like Lost in the Fog, registering Beyers of 100 and 105 in his first two career starts. Has excellent gate speed and could challenge the favorite early.

                        Negatives: Has not won since those two races in early 2004 and has only seven career starts as a 5-year-old, suggesting serious physical problems. Has never raced beyond the allowance level and has been getting caught late by N2x rivals.

                        10. Imperialism
                        ML Odds: 15-1
                        Fair Odds: 20-1

                        Positives: Turns back from a route to a sprint stakes for the third time in his career, a move that netted him victories in the San Vicente last year and the O'Brien Handicap this year.

                        Negatives: Those races were at 7f rather than 6f and they earned Beyers of 101 and 104, which are unlikely to get more than a minor award here.

                        11. Gygistar
                        ML Odds: 12-1
                        Fair Odds: 10-1

                        Positives: Classy veteran has 20 triple-digit Beyers in 29 career starts, including four at the 110 level or above. In 2002, he won the Riva Ridge and King's Bishop with Beyers of 104 and 113, races Lost in the Fog won this year with Beyers of 107 and 105.

                        Negatives: Gygistar is at his best at seven furlongs and a mile, and is shortening up to six furlongs for the first time in over two years.

                        Published picks: Taste of Paradise, Gygistar, Lion Tamer.

                        Second thoughts: Wildcat Heir, despite his physical problems, may be the best pure six-furlong older horse in the field and could end up in a dream spot just behind an early scramble involving Lost in the Fog, Lifestyle and Attila's Storm. Considering how well he ran off nine-month layoff last time out, his 10-week layoff into this race may not be an undue concern. When you're taking a shot against an odds-on favorite, it is probably unwise to draw too fine a line among the possible upsetters.

                        Tomorrow, bright and early: The Mile, Distaff, Turf and Classic.
                        June 9, 1973 - The day athletic perfection was defined.



                        • #13
                          Ok, started pretty good here, had the exacta in the Juvie fillies for $5. Invested $30 in the race, paid $122 or so after the online site took their juice.

                          Up next: The Juvenile: Time to throw a bomb.

                          Keying Steviewonderboy and Private Vow with 8 others, $1 Tri two different ways. I was going to hit Stevie with a bomb in the Win column, but don't like the 7-2; can't play it *and* stick to my money-management strategy. Ah well.
                          I like cheese.


                          • #14
                            Damn, looks like Private Vow had some sort of health issue. Bolted outside, jockey took him back.

                            Replay showed: Private Vow's reigns broke. Nightmare for a jock. Thankfully that means the horse is probably ok healthwise. Never seen that happen, wondering how in hell that happens in the BC?

                            Other than that, I had the freaking Triple in that race. Ah well. Alive in the pick-3, had 2 horses in the first leg with Stevie singled. I'll need Ouija Board, Intercontinental, Megahertz, Film Maker, Wend, Mona Lisa, or Wonder Again. Depending on the order of finish, it'll be either a nothing payoff, a moderate pay, or a decent one. $14 investment, only play I'll make in the F&M Turf which frankly looks totally unplayable.
                            I like cheese.


                            • #15
                              Woooot! Intercontinental brings home a Pick 3 for me, and I should get a solid payoff thanks to some decent odds on her.

                              Lets see those payouts!

                              Holy shit. Can the pre-race payout "Will Pay" be right? $341?

                              Holy shit. Nice Return on Investment of $14!!!

                              Holy shit, the money just hit my account. $341.35.

                              Three races in, already my best BC day.

                              I'm playing with House Money now.
                              I like cheese.