How Cards do in 2004 depends on the "Big Seven"

[Razzy]

The "Big Seven" are Morris, Izzy, Woody, Renteria, Pujols, Edmonds, and Rolen.

How these guys hold up and perform this year will determine the fate of this team. If anything happens to any of them, and the team is forced to rely on others, like Sanders, Carpenter, Marquis, Suppan, Kline, etc, then this team will have problems.

If all of them stay healthy and perform at their very best, this team should win 95-100 games.

If they all stay healthy and perform at a more realistic level, they'll win 90-94 games.

If one or two of those guys get hurt and/or struggle, they'll win between 81 and 87 games.

If three of those guys get hurt and/or struggle, then they will finish below .500.

I'd be the most concerned about Woody, Morris, Edmonds, and Izzy, in about that order.

I'll revisit this after the season is over and see how close I came to being right.

[WinstonSmith]

I disagree.

Morris and Woody are important, but they are only 2/5 of the rotation. What's more "key" in my opinion is the work of Carpenter, Marquis, and Suppan.

I think its those three that will determine the fate of this ballclub.

[Razzy]

To an extent, I agree with that also. But if those guys struggle, they should be able to come up with some average guys to replace them. Haren, Calero, and probably a couple of others could step in and perform if they get hurt and/or struggle. So could Simontacchi but I think he is a below average starter.

I am not expecting those three combined to be much better or worse than average. I am counting on (and so is the team) Woody and Morris to be better than average. Two above average starters to go with three average starters makes a winning team, especially with our offense and improved bullpen.

If any of those three turn out to be better than average, it will be a surprise and a bonus - but cant be counted on given their careers so far.