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Diamond Mine: Projected Standings
Diamond Mine: Projected Standings
NL Central W L Pct GB RF RA #DIV #WC
St. Louis 92 70 .568 - 834 735 45.5 19.3
Chicago 90 72 .556 2 742 655 25.0 22.8
Houston 90 72 .556 2 768 695 29.5 17.2
Cincinnati 75 87 .463 17 719 778
Pittsburgh 67 95 .414 25 698 821
Milwaukee 67 95 .414 25 701 836
NL Central
St. Louis Cardinals (92-70, division title 46%, wild card 19%)
Albert Pujols, Jim Edmonds, Scott Rolen, and Edgar Renteria are back, so you know they'll score a lot of runs as long as they don't fill the rest of the lineup with out-making machines. Could they really undermine the heart of the order that way?
Probably not, especially with a proven hitter like Reggie Sanders in right field. But St. Louis may get very little out of the catcher (Mike Matheny) and second base (Marlon Anderson, Bo Hart) positions. And after they decide whether to play Pujols at first or in left, it's not clear how much they'll get out of the other position. We put Pujols at first and split the LF time between Ray Lankford and Colin Porter, but that's highly speculative at the moment. With that arrangement, this lineup averaged 834 runs per simulated season, second only to Philly's 855.
It almost goes without saying that the real issue is the pitching. That's what derailed a promising 2003 season, and the Cards must cut their runs allowed and hold more late-inning leads. The good news for St. Louis fans is that they did just that in our simulations.
Eleven relievers not named Jason Isringhausen combined to blow 28 saves last season. Overall, with Isringhausen included, the 2003 bullpen coughed up about 12 more leads than the average team. (Remember, they lost the division by only three games.) But that problem was solved last June when Jason Isringhausen returned from injury last June to notch 22 saves in 25 chances. He's healthy now, so closing games shouldn't be an issue in 2004. Overall, with a full year from Isringhausen, the bullpen could be adequate.
What about the starting rotation? Led by Matt Morris and Woody Williams, augmented by journeyman Jeff Suppan, and rounded out by some combination of Danny Haren, Chris Carpenter, Jason Marquis and Jason Simontacchi, the rotation could be good enough to get the job done. We ran the simulations with Haren and Carpenter in the #4 and #5 spots, but you could substitute the other guys without affecting the team's performance very much.
Difference makers: All teams are vulnerable to injuries, but with so much value tied up in the top four hitters, the top two starters, and the closer, the loss of a couple of key guys could be devastating ... Haren, if the 23-year-old is given a chance and emerges as a solid starter.
St. Louis 92 70 .568 - 834 735 45.5 19.3
Chicago 90 72 .556 2 742 655 25.0 22.8
Houston 90 72 .556 2 768 695 29.5 17.2
Cincinnati 75 87 .463 17 719 778
Pittsburgh 67 95 .414 25 698 821
Milwaukee 67 95 .414 25 701 836
NL Central
St. Louis Cardinals (92-70, division title 46%, wild card 19%)
Albert Pujols, Jim Edmonds, Scott Rolen, and Edgar Renteria are back, so you know they'll score a lot of runs as long as they don't fill the rest of the lineup with out-making machines. Could they really undermine the heart of the order that way?
Probably not, especially with a proven hitter like Reggie Sanders in right field. But St. Louis may get very little out of the catcher (Mike Matheny) and second base (Marlon Anderson, Bo Hart) positions. And after they decide whether to play Pujols at first or in left, it's not clear how much they'll get out of the other position. We put Pujols at first and split the LF time between Ray Lankford and Colin Porter, but that's highly speculative at the moment. With that arrangement, this lineup averaged 834 runs per simulated season, second only to Philly's 855.
It almost goes without saying that the real issue is the pitching. That's what derailed a promising 2003 season, and the Cards must cut their runs allowed and hold more late-inning leads. The good news for St. Louis fans is that they did just that in our simulations.
Eleven relievers not named Jason Isringhausen combined to blow 28 saves last season. Overall, with Isringhausen included, the 2003 bullpen coughed up about 12 more leads than the average team. (Remember, they lost the division by only three games.) But that problem was solved last June when Jason Isringhausen returned from injury last June to notch 22 saves in 25 chances. He's healthy now, so closing games shouldn't be an issue in 2004. Overall, with a full year from Isringhausen, the bullpen could be adequate.
What about the starting rotation? Led by Matt Morris and Woody Williams, augmented by journeyman Jeff Suppan, and rounded out by some combination of Danny Haren, Chris Carpenter, Jason Marquis and Jason Simontacchi, the rotation could be good enough to get the job done. We ran the simulations with Haren and Carpenter in the #4 and #5 spots, but you could substitute the other guys without affecting the team's performance very much.
Difference makers: All teams are vulnerable to injuries, but with so much value tied up in the top four hitters, the top two starters, and the closer, the loss of a couple of key guys could be devastating ... Haren, if the 23-year-old is given a chance and emerges as a solid starter.
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