MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WARNING

[BlueBrained]

VALID BEGINNING AT: EFFECTIVE IMMEDIATELY VALID UNTIL: 23:00 UTC (5 pm EDT) ON 16 SEPTEMBER

HIGH RISK PERIOD: 14-15 SEPTEMBER (UTC DAYS) MODERATE RISK PERIOD: 14-16 SEPTEMBER

PREDICTED ACTIVITY INDICES: 30, 50, 30, 20 (14 - 17 SEPTEMBER)

POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE OF MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY: MODERATE TO HIGH

POTENTIAL DURATION OF THIS ACTIVITY: MAIN BELT = 24 HOURS
MINOR BELT = 24-48 HOURS

ESTIMATED OPTIMUM OBSERVING CONDITIONS: NEAR OR AFTER LOCAL MIDNIGHT

EXPECTED LUNAR INTERFERENCE: MODERATE

OVERALL OPPORTUNITY FOR OBSERVATIONS FROM MIDDLE LATITUDES: FAIR TO GOOD

AURORAL ACTIVITY *MAY* BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...
(THIS LINE IS VALID *ONLY* IF FAVORABLE STORM CONDITIONS OCCUR)

OREGON TO SOUTHERN IDAHO AND NORTHERN UTAH TO WYOMING TO NEBRASKA TO
NORTHERN MISSOURI TO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS TO KENTUCKY TO VIRGINIA.

ACTIVITY *MAY* ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...
(THIS LINE IS VALID *ONLY* IF FAVORABLE STORM CONDITIONS OCCUR)

CENTRAL FRANCE TO NORTHERN SWITZERLAND TO SOUTHERN GERMANY TO THE CZECH
REPUBLIC TO POLAND TO CENTRAL RUSSIA.

NEW ZELAND AND SOUTHEASTERN AUSTRALIA SHOULD ALSO BE ABLE TO SPOT PERIODS
OF ACTIVITY.

SYNOPSIS...

Active region 10808 continues to produce energetic solar flare activity.
The latest X-class flare was associated with an Earthward-directed
(full-halo) coronal mass ejection that is expected to arrive at the Earth near the end of the UTC day of 14 September (for North American observers, this translates to the late afternoon and/or evening hours of Wednesday, 14 September). This disturbance will have the potential to produce periods of moderate to strong auroral storm conditions. Observations should be possible over wide-spread mid-latitude locations. We are expecting to see the passage of a magnetic cloud with this disturbance, which could further enhance the potential for storm conditions (preceded or succeded by quieter conditions as the IMF rotates away from a favorable orientation).

This warning will remain valid through 23:00 UTC (5 pm EDT) on
16 September, with a good chance that it will be extended beyond the 14th.
It will be updated or allowed to expire at that time. For updated information, visit: http://www.spacew.com/aurora/forum.html. For real-time plots of current activity, visit: http://www.spacew.com/plots.html

PLEASE REPORT VALID OBSERVATIONS OF AURORAL ACTIVITY TO:
http://www.spacew.com/submitsighting.html


** End of Warning **

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[ElviswasaBluesFan]

Blue - I asked this in another thread. Maybe you didn't see it:

Blue - can you please explain the significance of this stuff? I mean other than being really cool to look at and screwing up communications, what other "side effects" so to speak can there be?

Thanks.

[BlueBrained]

QUOTE(ElviswasaBluesFan @ Sep 14 2005, 08:54 AM) Quoted post

Blue - I asked this in another thread. Maybe you didn't see it:

Blue - can you please explain the significance of this stuff? I mean other than being really cool to look at and screwing up communications, what other "side effects" so to speak can there be?

Thanks.
[/b][/quote]


IMO, Global warming is the most likely damaging side effect due to soalr flare and CME abtivity.


Here is what is coming at us...



All by itself, sunspot 798/808 has made Sept. 2005 the most active month on the sun since March 1991.

If this incoming CME does hit Earth's magnetic field as hard as forecasters expect, auroras could appear in places where they are seldom seen: California, Arizona, Texas and elsewhere. Stay tuned for updates.

[ElviswasaBluesFan]

How long does it take for a CME to hit the Earth's atmosphere after it appears on the sun?

Also, any idea what causes these and why there seems to be so much increased activity?

[BlueBrained]

QUOTE(ElviswasaBluesFan @ Sep 14 2005, 09:59 AM) Quoted post

How long does it take for a CME to hit the Earth's atmosphere after it appears on the sun?

Also, any idea what causes these and why there seems to be so much increased activity?
[/b][/quote]

Usually they arrive 24 - 48 hours aftef they are released, depending on the speed of the solar wind associated with the CME.

Coronal mass ejections are often associated with solar flares and prominence eruptions but they can also occur in the absence of either of these processes.

[BlueBrained]

Movie of the CME/Earth interaction resulting in Aurora.

Apple Quicktime required.

[mw.2]

Cool video, thanks!

[BlueBrained]

And another

QUOTE(mw.2 @ Sep 14 2005, 10:56 AM) Quoted post

Cool video, thanks!
[/b][/quote]

No prob.

[BlueBrained]

The weather forecast for tonight has improved a little.

Now it is only supposed to be partly cloudy, so there is a chance I/we will be able to see the strom if it arrives tonight.

[ElviswasaBluesFan]

QUOTE(BlueBrained @ Sep 14 2005, 04:18 PM) Quoted post

The weather forecast for tonight has improved a little.

Now it is only supposed to be partly cloudy, so there is a chance I/we will be able to see the strom if it arrives tonight.
[/b][/quote]

What time? I have never seen one of these

[BlueBrained]

QUOTE(ElviswasaBluesFan @ Sep 14 2005, 04:20 PM) Quoted post

QUOTE(BlueBrained @ Sep 14 2005, 04:18 PM) Quoted post

The weather forecast for tonight has improved a little.

Now it is only supposed to be partly cloudy, so there is a chance I/we will be able to see the strom if it arrives tonight.
[/b][/quote]

What time? I have never seen one of these
[/b][/quote]

Not many people this far south have.

The latest prediction is that it will start sometime tonight.

I will post if/when I recieve the alert that the auroral storm has started or when I go outside and see taht is has begun.

Official Lounge Sponsor of:

Brett Hull & St. Patricks Day

[BlueBrained]

Geomagnetic and Auroral Activity Update

A pair of X-class flares on the 13th were associated with at least one coronal mass ejection that is known to be earthward directed. Impact is expected within the next 12 hours. The latest data suggests it may arrive late this evening or during the early morning hours over North America. Auroral activity is expected to intensify back to storm levels after it arrives. A mid-latitude auroral activity warning remains in effect for this period.

Solar Activity Update

Region 808 is in a gradual state of simplification, yet still retains a potent magnetic delta configuration with a volatile east-west oriented neutral line. We expect this region to continue to produce occasional major M and/or X-class solar flares during the next several days. Any events that occur during the next few days will almost certainly be associated with strong earthward directed coronal mass ejections.