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I've always found this thing pretty interesting.
St. Louis Cardinals (92-70, division title 46%, wild card 19%)
Albert Pujols, Jim Edmonds, Scott Rolen, and Edgar Renteria are back, so you know they'll score a lot of runs as long as they don't fill the rest of the lineup with out-making machines. Could they really undermine the heart of the order that way?
Probably not, especially with a proven hitter like Reggie Sanders in right field. But St. Louis may get very little out of the catcher (Mike Matheny) and second base (Marlon Anderson, Bo Hart) positions. And after they decide whether to play Pujols at first or in left, it's not clear how much they'll get out of the other position. We put Pujols at first and split the LF time between Ray Lankford and Colin Porter, but that's highly speculative at the moment. With that arrangement, this lineup averaged 834 runs per simulated season, second only to Philly's 855.
It almost goes without saying that the real issue is the pitching. That's what derailed a promising 2003 season, and the Cards must cut their runs allowed and hold more late-inning leads. The good news for St. Louis fans is that they did just that in our simulations.
Eleven relievers not named Jason Isringhausen combined to blow 28 saves last season. Overall, with Isringhausen included, the 2003 bullpen coughed up about 12 more leads than the average team. (Remember, they lost the division by only three games.) But that problem was solved last June when Jason Isringhausen returned from injury last June to notch 22 saves in 25 chances. He's healthy now, so closing games shouldn't be an issue in 2004. Overall, with a full year from Isringhausen, the bullpen could be adequate.
What about the starting rotation? Led by Matt Morris and Woody Williams, augmented by journeyman Jeff Suppan, and rounded out by some combination of Danny Haren, Chris Carpenter, Jason Marquis and Jason Simontacchi, the rotation could be good enough to get the job done. We ran the simulations with Haren and Carpenter in the #4 and #5 spots, but you could substitute the other guys without affecting the team's performance very much.
Difference makers: All teams are vulnerable to injuries, but with so much value tied up in the top four hitters, the top two starters, and the closer, the loss of a couple of key guys could be devastating ... Haren, if the 23-year-old is given a chance and emerges as a solid starter.
Code:
AL East W L Pct GB RF RA #DIV #WC Boston 102 60 .630 - 890 680 54.5 42.0 New York 101 61 .623 1 899 703 45.5 46.5 Toronto 79 83 .488 23 819 845 1.0 Baltimore 75 87 .463 27 829 872 Tampa Bay 64 98 .395 38 706 874 AL Central W L Pct GB RF RA #DIV #WC Minnesota 83 79 .512 - 787 765 42.0 Chicago 82 80 .506 1 755 760 34.0 Cleveland 78 84 .481 5 740 756 15.5 Kansas City 78 84 .481 5 812 828 8.5 Detroit 61 101 .377 22 703 917 AL West W L Pct GB RF RA #DIV #WC Oakland 92 70 .568 - 791 672 56.3 1.5 Seattle 87 75 .537 5 768 720 25.8 2.5 Anaheim 86 76 .531 6 758 700 16.8 6.5 Texas 72 90 .444 20 789 890 1.0 NL East W L Pct GB RF RA #DIV #WC Philadelphia 97 65 .599 - 855 706 86.5 3.2 Atlanta 86 76 .531 11 822 769 12.0 26.0 Florida 78 84 .481 19 733 752 1.5 Montreal 77 85 .475 20 784 828 1.0 1.0 New York 73 89 .451 24 742 808 .5 NL Central W L Pct GB RF RA #DIV #WC St. Louis 92 70 .568 - 834 735 45.5 19.3 Chicago 90 72 .556 2 742 655 25.0 22.8 Houston 90 72 .556 2 768 695 29.5 17.2 Cincinnati 75 87 .463 17 719 778 Pittsburgh 67 95 .414 25 698 821 Milwaukee 67 95 .414 25 701 836 NL West W L Pct GB RF RA #DIV #WC San Francisco 87 75 .537 - 768 707 50.5 3.5 San Diego 83 79 .512 4 771 738 29.5 4.5 Arizona 78 84 .481 9 761 793 8.0 1.0 Los Angeles 77 85 .475 10 657 712 10.0 Colorado 73 89 .451 14 830 916 2.0
St. Louis Cardinals (92-70, division title 46%, wild card 19%)
Albert Pujols, Jim Edmonds, Scott Rolen, and Edgar Renteria are back, so you know they'll score a lot of runs as long as they don't fill the rest of the lineup with out-making machines. Could they really undermine the heart of the order that way?
Probably not, especially with a proven hitter like Reggie Sanders in right field. But St. Louis may get very little out of the catcher (Mike Matheny) and second base (Marlon Anderson, Bo Hart) positions. And after they decide whether to play Pujols at first or in left, it's not clear how much they'll get out of the other position. We put Pujols at first and split the LF time between Ray Lankford and Colin Porter, but that's highly speculative at the moment. With that arrangement, this lineup averaged 834 runs per simulated season, second only to Philly's 855.
It almost goes without saying that the real issue is the pitching. That's what derailed a promising 2003 season, and the Cards must cut their runs allowed and hold more late-inning leads. The good news for St. Louis fans is that they did just that in our simulations.
Eleven relievers not named Jason Isringhausen combined to blow 28 saves last season. Overall, with Isringhausen included, the 2003 bullpen coughed up about 12 more leads than the average team. (Remember, they lost the division by only three games.) But that problem was solved last June when Jason Isringhausen returned from injury last June to notch 22 saves in 25 chances. He's healthy now, so closing games shouldn't be an issue in 2004. Overall, with a full year from Isringhausen, the bullpen could be adequate.
What about the starting rotation? Led by Matt Morris and Woody Williams, augmented by journeyman Jeff Suppan, and rounded out by some combination of Danny Haren, Chris Carpenter, Jason Marquis and Jason Simontacchi, the rotation could be good enough to get the job done. We ran the simulations with Haren and Carpenter in the #4 and #5 spots, but you could substitute the other guys without affecting the team's performance very much.
Difference makers: All teams are vulnerable to injuries, but with so much value tied up in the top four hitters, the top two starters, and the closer, the loss of a couple of key guys could be devastating ... Haren, if the 23-year-old is given a chance and emerges as a solid starter.
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