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MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WARNING
Issued: 01:45 UTC on 11 September 2005
Solar Terrestrial Dispatch
www.spacew.com
VALID BEGINNING AT: EFFECTIVE IMMEDIATELY
VALID UNTIL: 23:00 UTC (6 pm EST) ON 14 SEPTEMBER
HIGH RISK PERIOD: 11-13 SEPTEMBER (UTC DAYS)
MODERATE RISK PERIOD: 11-14 SEPTEMBER
PREDICTED ACTIVITY INDICES: 50, 40, 40, 20 (11 - 14 SEPTEMBER)
POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE OF MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY: MODERATE TO HIGH
POTENTIAL DURATION OF THIS ACTIVITY: MAIN BELT = 24-72 HOURS
MINOR BELT = 72-96 HOURS
ESTIMATED OPTIMUM OBSERVING CONDITIONS: NEAR OR AFTER LOCAL MIDNIGHT
EXPECTED LUNAR INTERFERENCE: LOW TO MODERATE
OVERALL OPPORTUNITY FOR OBSERVATIONS FROM MIDDLE LATITUDES: FAIR TO GOOD
AURORAL ACTIVITY *MAY* BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...
(THIS LINE IS VALID *ONLY* IF FAVORABLE STORM CONDITIONS OCCUR)
OREGON TO SOUTHERN IDAHO AND NORTHERN UTAH TO WYOMING TO NEBRASKA TO
NORTHERN MISSOURI TO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS TO KENTUCKY TO VIRGINIA.
ACTIVITY *MAY* ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...
(THIS LINE IS VALID *ONLY* IF FAVORABLE STORM CONDITIONS OCCUR)
CENTRAL FRANCE TO NORTHERN SWITZERLAND TO SOUTHERN GERMANY TO THE CZECH
REPUBLIC TO POLAND TO CENTRAL RUSSIA.
NEW ZELAND AND SOUTHEASTERN AUSTRALIA SHOULD ALSO BE ABLE TO SPOT PERIODS
OF ACTIVITY.
SYNOPSIS...
A series of coronal mass ejections have been directed partially
Earthward over the last few days. The Earth is beginning to observe impacts
from some of the stronger events. Periods of intensifying auroral activity
will be observed during the next several days. The first of the larger
impacts occurred near 01:19 UTC on 11 September and is expected to produce
periods of minor to major auroral storm conditions, sporadically during the
next 12 to 18 hours. Additional strong impacts are expected over the next
several days. Some of these disturbances are cannibalizing other CME's, and
as a result, the potential geoeffectiveness will likely be complex and
difficult to accurately predict. Nevertheless, the potential exists for
periods of strong auroral storm conditions developing during the next several
days (at least). Near-continuous storm-level activity is possible during the
next week, if sunspot complex 10808 continues to impress with energetic flare
activity.
This warning will remain valid through 24:00 UTC (6 pm EDT) on
14 September, with a good chance that it will be extended beyond the 14th.
It will be updated or allowed to expire at that time. For updated
information, visit: http://www.spacew.com/aurora/forum.html. For real-time
plots of current activity, visit: http://www.spacew.com/plots.html
PLEASE REPORT VALID OBSERVATIONS OF AURORAL ACTIVITY TO:
http://www.spacew.com/submitsighting.html
** End of Warning **
Issued: 01:45 UTC on 11 September 2005
Solar Terrestrial Dispatch
www.spacew.com
VALID BEGINNING AT: EFFECTIVE IMMEDIATELY
VALID UNTIL: 23:00 UTC (6 pm EST) ON 14 SEPTEMBER
HIGH RISK PERIOD: 11-13 SEPTEMBER (UTC DAYS)
MODERATE RISK PERIOD: 11-14 SEPTEMBER
PREDICTED ACTIVITY INDICES: 50, 40, 40, 20 (11 - 14 SEPTEMBER)
POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE OF MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY: MODERATE TO HIGH
POTENTIAL DURATION OF THIS ACTIVITY: MAIN BELT = 24-72 HOURS
MINOR BELT = 72-96 HOURS
ESTIMATED OPTIMUM OBSERVING CONDITIONS: NEAR OR AFTER LOCAL MIDNIGHT
EXPECTED LUNAR INTERFERENCE: LOW TO MODERATE
OVERALL OPPORTUNITY FOR OBSERVATIONS FROM MIDDLE LATITUDES: FAIR TO GOOD
AURORAL ACTIVITY *MAY* BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...
(THIS LINE IS VALID *ONLY* IF FAVORABLE STORM CONDITIONS OCCUR)
OREGON TO SOUTHERN IDAHO AND NORTHERN UTAH TO WYOMING TO NEBRASKA TO
NORTHERN MISSOURI TO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS TO KENTUCKY TO VIRGINIA.
ACTIVITY *MAY* ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...
(THIS LINE IS VALID *ONLY* IF FAVORABLE STORM CONDITIONS OCCUR)
CENTRAL FRANCE TO NORTHERN SWITZERLAND TO SOUTHERN GERMANY TO THE CZECH
REPUBLIC TO POLAND TO CENTRAL RUSSIA.
NEW ZELAND AND SOUTHEASTERN AUSTRALIA SHOULD ALSO BE ABLE TO SPOT PERIODS
OF ACTIVITY.
SYNOPSIS...
A series of coronal mass ejections have been directed partially
Earthward over the last few days. The Earth is beginning to observe impacts
from some of the stronger events. Periods of intensifying auroral activity
will be observed during the next several days. The first of the larger
impacts occurred near 01:19 UTC on 11 September and is expected to produce
periods of minor to major auroral storm conditions, sporadically during the
next 12 to 18 hours. Additional strong impacts are expected over the next
several days. Some of these disturbances are cannibalizing other CME's, and
as a result, the potential geoeffectiveness will likely be complex and
difficult to accurately predict. Nevertheless, the potential exists for
periods of strong auroral storm conditions developing during the next several
days (at least). Near-continuous storm-level activity is possible during the
next week, if sunspot complex 10808 continues to impress with energetic flare
activity.
This warning will remain valid through 24:00 UTC (6 pm EDT) on
14 September, with a good chance that it will be extended beyond the 14th.
It will be updated or allowed to expire at that time. For updated
information, visit: http://www.spacew.com/aurora/forum.html. For real-time
plots of current activity, visit: http://www.spacew.com/plots.html
PLEASE REPORT VALID OBSERVATIONS OF AURORAL ACTIVITY TO:
http://www.spacew.com/submitsighting.html
** End of Warning **
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