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  • Aurora Activity Possible?

    No offocial watches or warnings have been posted but the Sun has been going crazy for ther past 2 - 3 days producing X Class Solar flares that have produced an S3 solar radiation storm along with full halo coronal mass ejections. There have been 7 X class flares since September 8th. Normally 1 a month is a lot. The sun spot producing the activity is huge, about 10 - 20 times the size of Earth.




    In English that means there is a whole lot of shit getting ready to hit the Earth.

    I will let you all know if/when a warning is issued.


    Region 808 is responsible for 7 major energetic solar flares during the last 24 hours, at least three of which are suspected to be prolific proton flares. Energetic protons have resulted in a category S3 radiation storm. The intensity of the radiation storm is expected to sporadically increase during the next week to perhaps S4 levels, provided Region 808 maintains its existing capability of producing prolific energetic flare activity. Region 808 is a magnetically complex active region, with a very strong magnetic delta configuration evident. The region very closely resembles an island-delta configuration, and as such is likely to continue to produce violent outbursts of activity into the forseeable near-future.

    Geomagnetic and Auroral Activity Update

    Periods of minor to major geomagnetic and auroral storm conditions will be possible later on Saturday and particularly on Sunday from recent coronal mass ejection activity. Stronger periods of activity are very likely to be observed next week as the complex sunspot group continues to produce extremely energetic solar events.
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  • #2
    And what would this mean to us?
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    • #3
      Originally posted by Lippa@Sep 10 2005, 04:39 PM
      And what would this mean to us?

      Armageddon.... (B)

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      • #4
        Will hard hats help?

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        • #5
          Originally posted by Lippa@Sep 10 2005, 05:39 PM
          And what would this mean to us?
          It has already caused a radio blackout

          and

          It mean you might see something like this...

          I took these on 05/15/05









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          • #6
            Originally posted by Celtic@Sep 10 2005, 06:38 PM
            Will hard hats help?
            I have some in my trunk if anyone wants one!
            Feb. 08, 2005
            Lois Lane: What's the general opinion of a gal asking the guy out?

            Forever
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            Originally posted by Airshark
            NSane has already won - because the Sharks are well and truly ef'ed.

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            • #7
              Solar activity increased to near extreme levels. Region
              808 (S09E54) continues to be very active and produced five major
              flares today. Listed in chronological order, an X5/2b event that
              occurred at 08/2106Z, an X1 at 09/0300Z, an M6/1f at 09/0548Z, an X3
              at 09/0959Z, and a long duration X6/2b at 09/2004Z, which had
              associated type iv and type ii (estimated shock velocity of 959
              km/sec) radio sweeps. No cme structures were observed due to
              particle contamination on lasco. Region 808 is an extremely complex
              and compact spot group and it currently exceeds 1400 millionths of
              white light area. Magnetic analysis clearly depicts a very strong
              beta-gamma-delta configuration. No new regions were numbered today.



              Geophysical activity forecast: the geomagnetic field is
              expected to range from quiet to major storm levels. Possible
              activity that occurred today is expected to become geoeffective on
              11 september and produce active to storm levels with isolated major
              storming periods possible. Isolated minor storm conditions are
              expected on 10 september due to ongoing transient flow. The greater
              than 10 mev proton event currently in progress is expected to
              continue through the next three days. The greater than 100 mev
              proton event now in progress is expected to continue through 11
              september. Today's X6/2b flare may enhance the existing proton
              events.

              Event probabilities 10 sep-12 sep

              Class M 90/90/90
              Class X 75/75/75
              Proton 99/99/99
              PCAF in progress

              Geomagnetic activity probabilities 10 sep-12 sep

              A. Middle Latitudes
              Active 35/40/35
              Minor storm 15/20/15
              Major-severe storm 10/15/10

              B. High Latitudes
              Active 40/45/40
              Minor storm 20/35/20
              Major-severe storm 15/20/15
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              • #8
                Just saw this:

                http://www.nasa.gov/vision/universe/solars...lare_sept7.html



                Scientists are currently tracking a large sunspot that has so far unleashed three major solar flares: an X-17-category blast on Sept. 7, an X-5 on Sept. 8, and an X-1 on Sept. 9. To say this is powerful is an understatement; Wednesday's X-17 flare was the fifth largest ever observed.

                With the exception of brief radio blackouts, the flares have had little effect on Earth, although the NOAA Space Environment Center warns that as the spot moves toward Earth, agencies impacted by space weather storms may experience disruptions over the next two weeks. These include spacecraft operators, electric power systems, high frequency communications, and low-frequency navigation systems.

                This sunspot is the same one that erupted in mid-August, sparking strong auroras as far south as Utah and Colorado. Over the past two weeks, the active region produced a series of significant solar eruptions as it made its way around the back-side of the Sun (facing away from Earth). This time, auroras are likely in Canada, Alaska, and other northern spots.

                Solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs) -- associated giant clouds of plasma in space -- are the largest explosions in the solar system and can pack the force of a billion megaton nuclear bombs. They are caused by the buildup and sudden release of magnetic stress in the solar atmosphere above the giant magnetic poles we see as sunspots.

                The NASA/ESA SOlar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO), missed the events due to routine orbit maneuvers and instrument maintenance. Its coronagraphs are now back in operation.
                No president wants war. Everything you may have heard is that, but it's just simply not true
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                • #9
                  I'm going to keep drinking...someone please tell me when I'm gonna die...

                  Thanks..

                  " Look, forget the myths the media's created about the White House--the truth is, these are not very bright guys, and things got out of hand."

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                  • #10
                    Originally posted by _STLfan_in_DFW@Sep 10 2005, 08:20 PM
                    I'm going to keep drinking...someone please tell me when I'm gonna die...

                    Thanks..


                    From solar flares? Or from drinking?

                    No president wants war. Everything you may have heard is that, but it's just simply not true
                    President George W. Bush, March 21, 2006

                    I'm a war president
                    President George W. Bush, February 8, 2004

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                    • #11
                      Originally posted by mw.2@Sep 10 2005, 08:19 PM
                      Just saw this:

                      http://www.nasa.gov/vision/universe/solars...lare_sept7.html



                      Wednesday's X-17 flare was the fifth largest ever observed.

                      With the exception of brief radio blackouts, the flares have had little effect on Earth, although the NOAA Space Environment Center warns that as the spot moves toward Earth, agencies impacted by space weather storms may experience disruptions over the next two weeks. These include spacecraft operators, electric power systems, high frequency communications, and low-frequency navigation systems.

                      This sunspot is the same one that erupted in mid-August, sparking strong auroras as far south as Utah and Colorado. Over the past two weeks, the active region produced a series of significant solar eruptions as it made its way around the back-side of the Sun (facing away from Earth). This time, auroras are likely in Canada, Alaska, and other northern spots.

                      Solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs) -- associated giant clouds of plasma in space -- are the largest explosions in the solar system and can pack the force of a billion megaton nuclear bombs. They are caused by the buildup and sudden release of magnetic stress in the solar atmosphere above the giant magnetic poles we see as sunspots.

                      The NASA/ESA SOlar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO), missed the events due to routine orbit maneuvers and instrument maintenance. Its coronagraphs are now back in operation.

                      Like I said, this is a MAJOR event!!!

                      And likely to become even better!!!!
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                      • #12
                        Does FEMA have people in place?

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                        • #13
                          Originally posted by The Skeptic@Sep 10 2005, 09:38 PM
                          Does FEMA have people in place?

                          I hope it is not Brown...
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                          • #14
                            I hope it is not Brown...
                            Might as well be.

                            He had as much to do with the levee breaks as Aurora did. :P

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                            • #15
                              Solar Flare Ranks

                              Code:
                              ----------------------------------------------
                              Ranking Day/Month/Year X-Ray Class
                              ----------------------------------------------
                              
                               1       04/11/03       X28
                               2       02/04/01       X20.0
                               2       16/08/89       X20.0
                               3       28/10/03       X17.2
                               4       07/09/05       X17
                               5       06/03/89       X15.0
                               5       11/07/78       X15.0
                               6       15/04/01       X14.4
                               7       24/04/84       X13.0
                               7       19/10/89       X13.0
                               8       15/12/82       X12.9
                               9       06/06/82       X12.0
                               9       01/06/91       X12.0
                               9       04/06/91       X12.0
                               9       06/06/91       X12.0
                               9       11/06/91       X12.0
                               9       15/06/91       X12.0
                               10      17/12/82       X10.1
                               10      20/05/84       X10.1
                               11      29/10/03       X10
                               11      25/01/91       X10.0
                               11      09/06/91       X10.0
                               12      09/07/82       X 9.8
                               12      29/09/89       X 9.8
                               13      22/03/91       X 9.4
                               13      06/11/97       X 9.4
                               14      24/05/90       X 9.3
                               15      06/11/80       X 9.0 
                               15      02/11/92       X 9.0
                              ----------------------------------------------
                              
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