Very Sad State of Cardinal Pitching Development

[ironman]

Cincy paper

STAT SHEET

Here is the list of major-league organizations with the number of pitchers each has signed who, with a week left in spring training, were projected to be in some major-league team's starting rotation:

10
Chicago Cubs

9
New York Yankees
L.A. Dodgers

8
Texas Rangers
Atlanta Braves

7
Houston Astros
Boston Red Sox
Seattle Mariners
Toronto Blue Jays

6
Oakland Athletics
San Diego Padres
Pittsburgh Pirates

5
Anaheim Angels
Kansas City Royals
Montreal Expos

4
Minnesota Twins
Chicago White Sox
Cleveland Indians
Florida Marlins
Phila. Phillies
Arizona D'dbacks

3
Baltimore Orioles
San Fran. Giants
New York Mets
Colorado Rockies

2
Cincinnati Reds
Detroit Tigers
T.B. Devil Rays
Milwaukee Brewers

1
St. Louis Cardinals

and

FARM FACTS

2 Major-league teams that have four pitchers originally signed by them in their five-man starting rotation: the Chicago Cubs and the Oakland A's.

7 Teams that have three signees in their rotation: Houston Astros, Los Angeles Dodgers, Seattle Mariners, Anaheim Angels, Kansas City Royals, Cleveland Indians and Texas Rangers.

7 Teams that have two: Atlanta Braves, Philadelphia Phillies, New York Mets, Pittsburgh Pirates, San Diego Padres, Chicago White Sox and Toronto Blue Jays.

13 Teams that have one: the Reds, Florida Marlins, Milwaukee Brewers, St. Louis Cardinals, Arizona Diamondbacks, Colorado Rockies, San Francisco Giants, Baltimore Orioles, Boston Red Sox, Tampa Bay Devil Rays, Detroit Tigers, New York Yankees and Minnesota Twins.

1 Team that has zero: Montreal Expos.

This is nuts. You would think by chance we'd be better than this. What does this say about our organization?

Do we not draft well? Do we not develop well? Both?

[Mr. Goalie]

Do we not draft well? Do we not develop well? Both?

Must be something in the water. The exact same questions can be asked about the Blues. <_<


Mr. G

[Damtoft]

Both.

The Dynamic Duo have to go.

Anaheim and Florida have shown us the way to get it done on small coin.

We're going in the opposite direction.

[madyaks]

Both

[TTB]

Both.

Can't wait until the Kool Aiders see this one.

[Stan_Papi]

I think those kind of measures end up oversimplifying things when evaluating projected rotations. First of all, the number for the Cardinals is wrong, as Morris is obviously in the Cards rotation, and Donovan Osborne is in the Yankees rotation, so those are two guys originally drafted and developed by the Cardinals.

Basically what this way of measuring also ends up doing is saying that if Woody Williams is injured that would make the Cardinals farm system "more productive", because then Dan Haren would be projected to be in our rotation.

Whatever problems there may be with the farm system, I tend to think it's more with the position players than with the pitching.

And from what I saw last year, there's some position players to be excited about in future years. Travis Hanson looked awfully good at 3rd base last spring - with Rolen in front of him, I'd be inclined to see if he could play 2nd base or right field. He has soft enough hands to play 2nd or a strong enough arm to play right. Most people are aware of Molina. I didn't see Barton last year since he wasn't drafted until June, but he looks to be a pretty disciplined hitter for his age.

The only short-term holes that I see us having (assuming we ultimately sign Renteria) would be 2nd base, catcher, left field, right field. And I think there's candidates for several of those spots already. Time will tell, I suppose.

[TTB]

Come on...how long does anything think Osborne is going to last?



The sad thing is that the level of talent among the pitchers is much higher than among position players but can they get it done at the ML level under TLR and Duncan? History says they won't.

[ScottStevens]

"The only short-term holes that I see us having (assuming we ultimately sign Renteria) would be 2nd base, catcher, left field, right field. And I think there's candidates for several of those spots already. Time will tell, I suppose."

???????

I guess that you forgot about five pitchers?

[Stan_Papi]

Originally posted by ScottStevens@Apr 4 2004, 12:17 PM
"The only short-term holes that I see us having (assuming we ultimately sign Renteria) would be 2nd base, catcher, left field, right field. And I think there's candidates for several of those spots already. Time will tell, I suppose."

???????

I guess that you forgot about five pitchers?

I was talking about among position players - I probably was somewhat unclear abou that, especially since the original discussion was about pitching.

But I'm even more optimisitic about our ability to fill in the rotation in future years.
Haren and Ryan are very close to major league ready, with Wainwright probably ready by next year, or possibly late this year. For me, Parrott falls into the same category as a guy who probably should have a full year of AAA experience, but I like the looks of his sinker - he's a prospect for a #3-5 starter.

Narveson is probably more of an '06 candidate, and Hawksworth could be either '06 or '07. There's still Luis Martinez if one of those guys don't pan out, or if he pitches like he did last year.

Another guy I haven't heard much about, but I remember was intriguing from last year's draft was Anthony Reyes. He pitched in the rotation at USC with Prior and I believe he was considered to be a first round caliber guy that slipped due to concerns about his agent (Boras) and a sore elbow that he had before the draft.

I haven't heard anything about him this year, but he's my dark horse candidate to pop up on the radar screen this year.

[ironman]

Originally posted by Stan_Papi@Apr 4 2004, 11:59 AM
Donovan Osborne is in the Yankees rotation, so those are two guys originally drafted and developed by the Cardinals.

Basically what this way of measuring also ends up doing is saying that if Woody Williams is injured that would make the Cardinals farm system "more productive", because then Dan Haren would be projected to be in our rotation.

Stan,

Using Osborne is disingenious. He may hurt himself going to the bathroom today. I think these stats were pulled before Donovan was named. I know up till yesterday there was still some question.

Anyway, the stats are the stats. Regardless of if Haren moves up or not they are still pretty bad.

What struck me as odd is that it really drew an end to the "we trade away all our prospects" in terms of pitching. We don't, because we don't have any. Talk about a complete failure of the system.

Teams that haven't been around as long as we have seem to have the better numbers in signed players starting in the majors.

[ironman]

Originally posted by Stan_Papi@Apr 4 2004, 12:28 PM
But I'm even more optimisitic about our ability to fill in the rotation in future years.

Your positive thoughts transcend the numbers.

[007]

If you wanna read Jeff Gordon (and I couldn't help myself), he states the Cards are very deep in pitching and the 'future looks very bright.'

[ScottStevens]

Originally posted by 007@Apr 4 2004, 12:31 PM
If you wanna read Jeff Gordon (and I couldn't help myself), he states the Cards are very deep in pitching and the 'future looks very bright.'

LOL!!!!

He also said that we had a deep starting five last year.

I wonder just how in the hell he retains his position at the Post Dispatch.

[Razzy]

Donovan Osborne? :rolleyes:

Please. When John Leiber and/or perhaps El Duque regain their health, Osborne will be gone.

And besides, Osborne was drafted by us before Walt got here. And thats important stuff around these quarters, right? <_<

This pretty much coincides with what many of us have been saying all along - that the Cardinals dont draft and develop players well enough to offset the fact that they are a mid-market team. At some point, a mid-market team has to be able to find good players cheaply, whether through acquiring them from other teams or by developing their own.

The evidence has been in for quite sometime now that Walt and TLR consistently fail to do this well. Most of the other mid-market or low budget teams are starting to figure out how to beat the higher budget teams, while Walt and TLR continue the same old tired method of recycling retreads and over-paying for free agents.

[Razzy]

Originally posted by pgrote@Apr 4 2004, 12:28 PM
Anyway, the stats are the stats. Regardless of if Haren moves up or not they are still pretty bad.

Well, at least if we have two, it moves us up into a tie with the Reds, Tigers, Devil Rays, and Brewers <_<