Thread: Barack Obama - Gives Up His Date To Speak

Originally Posted by FAR52

No, I just ridicule them when they get it so very wrong. But I think I'm on solid footing here. The've seen this movie before.

Right. But for some reason you think they're going to line up for Rick Perry or Mitt Romney. Independents might be tired of him, but I think he'll get the Democrats to vote for him.

Originally Posted by kennyboyerfan

No, she wouldn't, and you don't believe that. Rick Perry might, which is another level of scary.

Perry absolutely would. Obama is completely lost right now.

As I said in another thread, people have lost faith. No one is listening to him anymore, and until something good happens, they won't be listening again.

Originally Posted by kennyboyerfan

Right. But for some reason you think they're going to line up for Rick Perry or Mitt Romney. Independents might be tired of him, but I think he'll get the Democrats to vote for him.

And he'll lose if that's the case. Independents will decide the election, and he kissed them all goodbye a few years ago.

Originally Posted by Reggie Cleveland

Perry absolutely would. Obama is completely lost right now.

As I said in another thread, people have lost faith. No one is listening to him anymore, and until something good happens, they won't be listening again.

A presidential campaign has a wonderful way of focusing people's attention. Long way to go. But you are correct: He should have been doing this a long time ago.

Originally Posted by Reggie Cleveland

And he'll lose if that's the case. Independents will decide the election, and he kissed them all goodbye a few years ago.

I'm not convinced independents will vote for your guy. Romney, yes. Perry? I dunno.

Originally Posted by kennyboyerfan

Right. But for some reason you think they're going to line up for Rick Perry or Mitt Romney. Independents might be tired of him, but I think he'll get the Democrats to vote for him.

Most dems will of course vote for Obama. The battle is for the middle. Plus, I honestly believe that no matter who we nominate, the the right will come out in droves to vote against Obama. We'll have good turnout.

Originally Posted by Reggie Cleveland

And he'll lose if that's the case. Independents will decide the election, and he kissed them all goodbye a few years ago.

Three Myths about Independents

Correcting Myths about Independent Voters

Moon

Originally Posted by kennyboyerfan

A presidential campaign has a wonderful way of focusing people's attention. Long way to go. But you are correct: He should have been doing this a long time ago.

Like the Cardinals....too little, too late.

Originally Posted by kennyboyerfan

I'm not convinced independents will vote for your guy. Romney, yes. Perry? I dunno.

I think if we nominate Perry, we have a real good chance of losing the election against a very weak incumbent. That would be a shame.

Originally Posted by kennyboyerfan

I'm not convinced independents will vote for your guy. Romney, yes. Perry? I dunno.

Well, I was talking more about today. Perry will not bring any independents, which is why he will not get the nomination.

Originally Posted by Moon Man

Three Myths about Independents

Correcting Myths about Independent Voters

Moon

You keep those fingers crossed, hoss.

Originally Posted by FAR52

I think if we nominate Perry, we have a real good chance of losing the election against a very weak incumbent. That would be a shame.

Perry = Kerry

Originally Posted by Reggie Cleveland

Perry = Kerry

It's still early, but I have a sneaking suspicion that I'm going to lose my bet to Moed.

Originally Posted by Reggie Cleveland

You keep those fingers crossed, hoss.

You're the one who needs to keep his fingers crossed. Expecting this election to be about which way Independents go shows how little you understand about electoral politics. But then, what should one expect from an English major?

Moon

Originally Posted by Moon Man

You're the one who needs to keep his fingers crossed. Expecting this election to be about which way Independents go shows how little you understand about electoral politics. But then, what should one expect from an English major?

Moon

How did he win last time, professor?

Originally Posted by Moon Man

Three Myths about Independents

Correcting Myths about Independent Voters

Moon

OK, so independents often lean toward a particular party. But I don't think this takes into account how those views can switch? How do you explain George W. Bush getting elected one year and Barack Obama getting elected four years later? Didn't a lot of independent voters -- or at least those voters who don't vote straight ticket -- have to switch?

Originally Posted by Reggie Cleveland

Suppose Perry is not nominated?

In the douthat article, he retracts what he said about Obama running as a centrist, and now claims Obama is Nancy pelosi.

Helpfully, he offers that if perry is nominated as the republican challenger, it will be an ideological battle like 1964.

He is wrong. Barry, unlike perry, had a fucking clue about what he was talking about.

Originally Posted by kennyboyerfan

I'm not convinced independents will vote for your guy. Romney, yes. Perry? I dunno.

A lot of them might be voting for Donald trump.

Originally Posted by Reggie Cleveland

Well, I was talking more about today. Perry will not bring any independents, which is why he will not get the nomination.

A new SC poll just came out. Perry's 20 point lead down to 3. Perhaps republicans are starting to see Perry for what he really is.

http://www.thestate.com/2011/09/20/1...ut-barely.html

Originally Posted by FAR52

A new SC poll just came out. Perry's 20 point lead down to 3. Perhaps republicans are starting to see Perry for what he really is.

http://www.thestate.com/2011/09/20/1...ut-barely.html

The new face of your party?



(just kidding. sorta.)

Originally Posted by kennyboyerfan

OK, so independents often lean toward a particular party. But I don't think this takes into account how those views can switch? How do you explain George W. Bush getting elected one year and Barack Obama getting elected four years later? Didn't a lot of independent voters -- or at least those voters who don't vote straight ticket -- have to switch?

No. Obama won due to heavy Democrat voter identification and low Republican voter identification. Turnout was higher than normal in 2008, and there were more Democrats who voted than Republicans. Democrats were mobilized and Republicans stayed home. Independent voters didn't decide anything for Obama in 2008. And that is much how Bush won in 2000 - mobilizing the base.

Moon

Perry will do exactly what Obama did in 2008. Mobilize the............democratic base.

Originally Posted by kennyboyerfan

The new face of your party?



(just kidding. sorta.)

If he can win!

Originally Posted by FAR52

A new SC poll just came out. Perry's 20 point lead down to 3. Perhaps republicans are starting to see Perry for what he really is.

http://www.thestate.com/2011/09/20/1...ut-barely.html

ROCK HILL, S.C. - The results of the latest Winthrop Poll, of 825 respondents in 11 Southern states, taken between Feb. 21 and Feb. 27 are in.

The poll was conducted among those 18 years and older from Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi, North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, and Virginia, with an oversampling of registered voters. Check questions and answers here.

The survey used Random Digit Dialing (RDD) and wireless phone number sampling. Data utilizing all respondents has a margin of error of plus/minus 3.41 percent.

Among the Winthrop Poll findings:

• Mike Huckabee, who’s said he won’t run for president if he doesn’t think he can win, should be heartened by his support from “Probable Republican Primary Voters.” When asked who they would vote for as the next GOP nominee for president, the 21.9 percent*Huckabee received easily eclipsed Newt Gingrich’s 12.9 percent. Sarah Palin garnered 8.7 percent, while Mitt Romney edged out Tim Pawlenty 6.9 to 6.2 percent. Ron Paul, who won the CPAC straw poll, posted 5.8 percent, while Michelle Bachmann, touted in recent days as a force to be reckoned with, was way back in the pack with 1.1 percent. (Note: Names read to respondents were taken from the list of those receiving votes at CPAC. Preferences of rank-and-file Republicans in the South and those of party activists may move closer as the election drawers nearer).

• Independents lead the way in dissatisfaction with the track the country is on, with more than three-out-of-four (75.5 percent) believing we are headed in the wrong direction. This represents an increase of almost 20 percent*in the number of Independents (57.7 percent) who voiced their disapproval in Nov. 2009 when Winthrop last polled 11 Southern states.

• Registered Voters, Democrats, Republicans and Independents agree almost equally that the economy and economic/financial crisis is the #1 problem facing the country today. However, of the top three responses offered by Democrats, 13.4% mentioned education (no other category did) and 15.5 percent*of Republicans mentioned the price of oil/gas/other energy issues, a fact particularly relevant in light of the recent unrest in the Mideast.

• Almost 40 percent*of all respondents are not very confident or not at all confident about President Obama’s ability to handle threats to the U.S. Among Independents, 45.3 percent*feel that way, and for Republicans it’s 62 percent.

• Almost twice as many people in the South felt that economic conditions in their region were very good or fairly good (37.3 percent) as compared to only 21 percent*who characterize the national economy that way.

Originally Posted by Moon Man

No. Obama won due to heavy Democrat voter identification and low Republican voter identification. Turnout was higher than normal in 2008, and there were more Democrats who voted than Republicans. Democrats were mobilized and Republicans stayed home. Independent voters didn't decide anything for Obama in 2008. And that is much how Bush won in 2000 - mobilizing the base.

Moon

I'm probably talking in circles, but doesn't "mobilizing the base" mean attracting those independents who might lean in the opposite direction? It's just hard for me to imagine that Obama didn't get a whole bunch of right-leaning independents when he won. Is it your understanding from all this -- I didn't really read it that closely -- that voters switch a lot less than we might think?